Gold GC-mini market analysis
The Gold GC-mini has been strongly bullish for the past 25 months gaining over 107%. The drivers of this exponential growth are geopolitical uncertainty (Ukraine, Gaza), economic uncertainty (US tariffs), aggressive central bank buying (China has bought over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022), a weaker U.S dollar, interest rate expectations, and inflation hedging.
The Weekly Gold chart
- This week’s bar is a bear doji. Providing poor follow though after last weeks strong bull bar. The lack of a buy signal creates cautious and reluctant bulls.
- The weekly chart is currently forming a triangle pattern.
- Price has been ranging sideways for 8 weeks.
- Price twice tested resistance at the round number of 4300.
- The all time high would be the next level of resistance at 4400.
- August was the last time price had touched the 20MA. Triggering a parabolic ascent consisting of 9 consecutive weekly bull bars. Price had been consolidating for 20 weeks prior to the August breakout.
- Bulls want to run the price as close to, or above the highs as possible, in order to have the yearly bar close strong with a minimal upper tail.
- Bears are hoping for a 50% pullback on the first significant leg down. Attempting to add another similar leg while correcting down to the MA.
The Daily Gold chart
- Like the weekly chart, the daily chart is also forming a tightening triangle pattern. This is a breakout pattern. A breakout to either side becoming more likely as price continues to tighten.
- Friday’s bar was a failed breakout of the triangle.
- There are large bottom tails pushing away from the moving average on Tuesday and Thursday’s bars.
- Monday, Wednesday and Friday show large top tails pushing away from resistance level 4300.
- Every daily bar this week are showing significant tails.
- Price has been coiling around the moving average for past 32 sessions.
- Price is testing, though unable to close above, the 50% of the giant surprise bear bar that occurred on October 21st. If the daily chart remains unable to close a bar above that 50% mark of 4378.8, it is likely to reverse down for another leg. Closing above would signal that price is ready to continue upwards.
- Bulls are looking for a cup and handle breakout.
- Bears want a 3rd leg down.
- The daily gold chart is more prone to market volatility. Short term pullbacks occur alongside other speculative assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks.
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