Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market is trading sideways around the middle of the 1-Bar Crude oil trading range. Bulls hope for at least a small sideways to up leg retesting the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high. Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick is an inside bear doji closing in its upper half, with a long tail below.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could retest the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high, or if the market would pull back to the 20-week EMA.
- So far, the market is trading sideways around the middle of the large 1-bar trading range.
- Bulls got a strong spike up (March 9), but the long upper tail shows rejection of higher prices.
- Bulls hope for at least a small sideways to up leg retesting the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- They need consecutive strong bull bars to show control.
- Bears see the recent move as a parabolic buy climax.
- They see the current move as a retest of the prior high and want a lower high relative to March 9 high.
- Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
- Crude oil formed a parabolic buy vacuum overshooting the 2022 high, followed by a deep pullback.
- Last week’s candlestick was a large doji with very long tails, closing near its midpoint, creating a 1-bar trading range with strong two-sided trading.
- Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
- The middle of the large 1-bar trading range can act as an area of balance and a magnet.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can create a retest of the March 9 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
- Or whether the market continues to trade sideways, forming a lower high followed by a deeper pullback to the 20-week EMA in the weeks ahead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
The Daily crude oil chart
- The market traded sideways this week.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could generate follow-through buying to retest the March 9 high and break above it, or if the market would stall below that level and reverse with profit-taking.
- Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- They see this week as forming a double bottom bull flag (March 16 and March 18).
- Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars breaking above the bull flag to increase the odds of another leg up.
- If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
- Bears see the recent move as a parabolic buy climax followed by a deep pullback.
- They see the current move as a second leg sideways to up and want it to form a lower high.
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and breaking clearly below the 20-day EMA to show control.
- The March 9 bar is a large doji, creating a 1-bar trading range where traders may Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third.
- The middle of the 1-bar trading range can be an area of balance and a magnet.
- The market could still be in the sideways to up phase.
- Bears have not yet created any credible selling pressure — no consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can generate follow-through buying to retest and break above the March 9 high, or if the market stalls below it and reverses with profit-taking in the weeks ahead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
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