Trading Update: Monday July 27, 2026
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The daily chart of the E-mini has been in a bull trend on the higher time frames for many months, and it recently had a strong rally from the April low up to the June high.
- The market is forming a contracting triangle, which means it is close to breakout mode.
- The bulls tried to get a reversal up and they failed, and the bears are now trying to get a reversal down and a test of previous higher lows, such as the June 26 low and the June 9 low.
- Even if the market sells off to either of those lows, the odds favor buyers around that location, which limits the downside risk for the bulls.
- It is possible that the bears get a low-probability breakout and attempt to get some kind of measured move.
- The reality is that 7,000 is an important round number, and as the market approaches the round number, it will quickly become more attractive to bulls looking to buy.
- This lowers the probability that the bears will get a strong downside breakout, and it increases the risk that any reversal down will quickly get bought as bulls see it as a wonderful location to buy at a discounted price.
- The odds still favor a reversal up and a test of the July high or the June 15 high.
- Traders should continue to assume that the daily chart will go sideways for the next several bars until a test of the all-time high becomes likely.
- Until then, more sideways trading is likely to continue.
- Ultimately, the odds favor a test of the all-time high and the 7,700 round number.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up on the open, forming a fairly large gap, and the bears ended up getting an opening reversal.
- The bulls could not get a strong follow-through bar on bar one after the gap.
- The bears got a strong reversal bar on bar three, creating a 15-minute bear reversal bar closing on its low.
- The bears got another bear breakout on bar six, and at that point the market was always in short and likely to go lower.
- The market sold off fairly strongly from the bar two high down to the bar 15 low.
- However, it was a series of consecutive sell climaxes, and the market went down too far too fast.
- That increased the probability that the market would go sideways for the next several hours and lowered the probability of the market going a lot lower.
- The bulls got a strong reversal up from bar 16 to bar 18.
- The market has now had a big down and a big up, and that increases the odds of sideways price action in a triangle lasting for the next few hours.
- As of bar 42, the market is trying to get a downside breakout in trend resumption.
- However, it is getting close to support, such as last Friday’s low, because of the consecutive sell climaxes on the way down and the gap up on the open.
- Traders should assume that the rest of the day will probably have a lot of trading range price action.
- The bears may get a second leg down after the sell-off to bar 15, but that second leg will probably not be all that big and will be fairly disappointing.
- The bulls have had fairly strong buying pressure, such as the rally from the bar 15 low to the bar 18 high and then the rally up to bar 36.
- Typically, when you get a strong sell-off on the open that is climactic, the trend does not last the rest of the day.
- The bulls are hopeful that they can get a strong reversal up, but at the moment the bears are likely creating too much selling pressure.
- There is plenty of time left in the day, and if the bulls continue to increase buying pressure, that will add to the risk that the bulls get a reversal on the day.
- Realistically, the best the bulls can expect is probably a close around the midpoint of the day.
- The open of the day is basically the high of the day, and the market is unlikely to get back to that price location.
- Overall, traders should assume that a trending trading range is most likely for the next several hours and possibly the rest of the day.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from last Friday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
