Market Overview: EURUSD Forex
The market formed a EURUSD retest of the trading range high this week. The bears see the current move as a bull leg and a buy vacuum within the trading range. They hope that the upper third of the trading range will act as resistance. The bulls want a retest of the top of the trading range followed by a breakout above.
EURUSD Forex market
The Monthly EURUSD Forex chart
- The March monthly EURUSD candlestick was a big bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
- Last month, we said traders would see if the bulls could get a strong entry bar with follow-through buying, or if the market would continue to stall sideways, forming a retest of the prior leg extreme low (Jan 13) followed by a breakout instead.
- The bulls got a strong bull entry bar closing above the 20-month EMA. April traded higher testing near the trading range high.
- They see the move down to the January 13 low as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within a trading range. They want a failed breakout below the trading range.
- They got a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Jan 13) and a wedge (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 13).
- They want a retest of the top of the trading range followed by a breakout above.
- They need to create strong consecutive bull bars to increase the odds of a breakout above.
- The bears see the current move as a bull leg and a buy vacuum within the trading range.
- They hope that the upper third of the trading range will act as resistance.
- If the market trades above the September or July high, they want a failed breakout followed by a retest of the middle of the trading range.
- So far, the bulls got a retest near the top of the trading range.
- As strong as the move is, it could still be a bull leg and a buy vacuum within the trading range.
- Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range until a strong breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
- That means buying in the lower third and selling in the upper third of the trading range.
- For now, traders will see if the bulls can get a strong follow-through bull bar in April.
- Or will the market stall near the trading range high area and close the April candlestick with a long tail or a bear body instead?
The Weekly EURUSD chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a bull bar closing below the middle of its range with a long tail above.
- Last week, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong follow-through bull bar to retest the March 18 high, or if the market would attempt to trade higher but lack strong follow-through buying, closing with a long tail above or a bear body instead.
- The bulls want a retest of the top of the trading range (Aug/Sep highs). They got what they wanted.
- They hope to get a strong breakout above the top of the trading range followed by a measured move based on the height of the trading range.
- They want any pullback to be weak and sideways (overlapping candlesticks, doji(s), bull bars, long tails below candlesticks).
- The bears hope the market will stall around the upper third of the trading range.
- They see the current move as a buy vacuum and a bull leg within the trading range.
- They want the August/September highs to act as resistance.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar with a long tail above, it is not a strong buy signal bar (long tail above).
- Traders buying here could be buying near the upper third of the trading range which is not an ideal setup.
- As strong as the current move is, it could still be a bull leg and a buy vacuum within the trading range.
- For now, traders will see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying to retest near the August/September highs area.
- Or will the market stall around the upper third of the trading range and form bear bars in the weeks ahead instead?
- The market is trading around the upper third of the trading range which could be the sell zone of trading range traders.
- Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
- That means buying in the lower third and selling in the upper third of the trading range.
Market analysis reports archive
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