Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini put in an historic performance in 2025. Prices rose and remained above $4000 for the first time, finishing off with reported gains ranging between 60% – 71%, putting in more than 50 all-time highs! The highest returns since 1979. Gold tripled the S&P 500 with a total return of around 17-18%. The growth was primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, unprecedented central bank demand, US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar.
The Monthly Gold chart
- Parabolic breakout since August 2025.
- Significant upper tails 2 of past 3 months.
- Last month closed beneath the 50% mark.
- 3 of the past 5 months very strong bull bars closing on their highs.
- 15 of the past 22 bars were bullish. The remaining 7 are weak bear doji bars.
- Previous bull leg measured move target hit.
- Distance from the moving average sustained and increased over a long period of time, no reason for monthly bulls to exit their positions. This will likely change when the moving average gets violated with a strong close beneath.
- Bears want to protect upper tail resistance, sending price downward to test the high of April’s bar.
- Bulls want to continue the trend. Aiming for measured move targets in the $4900 area.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Sold off gains from the previous week.
- Only the 2nd time in the past 9 weeks to touch beneath the previous bar.
- Only the 2nd time to touch beneath the previous 2 bars since the August parabolic trend began.
- Pullback test of October high.
- 3 of past 4 bars strongly bullish closing on their highs.
- Distance from the moving average sustained.
- Testing the 50% mark of the current bull leg. Providing a chance for stuck bears to get a break even.
- Testing the high of the previous bear doji bar. Which is also a return to the apex of a triangle. Price has a tendency to do return to a triangle’s apex.
- Cup and handle pattern.
- Bulls want a pullback in order to add to, or reenter their positions. Looking for the bull trend to continue.
- Bears want to test and close beneath the moving average. As well as close beneath the low of October, thus breaking the current market structure.
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