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Nasdaq 100 Biggest Bar Since April 2025

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Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures

The NASDAQ E-mini futures week is the biggest bar since April 2025 with a bear body and big tails around the weekly EMA – exponential moving average.

The range of this week’s bar indicates that volatility is increasing.

Last week’s report said that we may be building an expanding triangle (ET) as shown in the chart below.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

NASDAQ Weekly Bear Inside Bar Following Biggest Bar Since April 2025 1
  • The week is a big bar with a bear body and big tails around the EMA.
  • Last week was a bad entry bar to the buy signal bar from 2 weeks ago, reversing around the high close of October end.
  • Last week’s report said that the market will likely visit the November low close next and see whether buyers come in along the way.
  • The market did make another attempt to go higher early in the week and then reversed to fall far below the EMA and below the November low close.
  • When the market reached the November close, buyers came in, creating the long tail at the bottom.
  • Given the big tails, there are likely buyers below and sellers above the tails.
  • Big bars usually have bad follow-through, so next week is not likely to be a bear trend bar.
  • Next week is likely even an inside bar.
  • If it is an inside bear bar, it could suffice as the 2nd leg down, and then bulls may try to start a leg up to get back above the EMA the following week.

The Daily NASDAQ chart

NASDAQ Daily 2nd Leg Down from Ema 1
  • The daily chart had big bars every day of the week with big bodies, which is unusual.
  • In other words, it’s uncommon to have consecutive (CC) bars with consistent body sizes, especially when the body sizes are also big. It’s more common to have disparate-sized bars – big body bars followed by small body bars.
  • Monday is a big bull bar reversing at the weekly EMA and bringing the market back above daily EMA. Tuesday is a bear bar with a good body, reversing Monday’s bull bar and closing below the daily EMA, and above the weekly EMA.
  • Using the logic above, Wednesday should have been a bad follow-through, esp. given the market is at support – weekly EMA.
  • Instead, Wednesday and Thursday are good bear bars closing far below the weekly EMA.
  • In doing so, the market closed below the 12/17 bear close and is at the 11/20 bear close.
  • Now the question is – What happens Friday? After three CC bear bars, it is less likely that there is a 4th bear bar. So, it is likely that Friday is a bull bar, or a doji bar.
  • Friday is a big bull bar reversing Thursday’s bear bar and closing below the weekly EMA.
  • Given the 3 CC bear bars, there should be at least a small second leg down. As mentioned, there were likely buyers around Tuesday’s close and weekly EMA that were trapped when Wednesday and Thursday broke below the weekly EMA.
  • So that is likely the place where the sellers will come in.
  • Keep in mind, the 2nd leg down could just be a single bar or even a long tail on the bottom of a bar.
  • As I have said in prior reports, it’s never clear till later what ended up being the 2nd leg of a move.
  • For example, one would say now that this move down is the 2nd leg down of the move down in November, since the market never got above the swing high before that November low.
  • But till this move happened, one had to assume that the leg down to the 12/17 close was the 2nd leg down. This would have been especially true if the market continued higher last week rather than reversing.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

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