The S&P 500 Emini futures tested close to the June 2 high. Bears want a double top bear flag, but the bull small bar on the weekly chart is a weak sell signal bar for next week. The move up since July 14 is fairly strong. Odds are the bulls will get at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
Emini monthly candlestick close above 20-month EMA
The S&P 500 Emini futures closed below the 20-month exponential moving average in June. It reversed to close above the 20-month exponential moving average in July, like the prior 2 occurrences during the sell-off in December 2018 and the Covid-19 sell-off in 2020. The bulls need to create a consecutive bull bar in August to increase the odds of a re-test of the all-time high. July is an inside bull bar. It is a breakout mode pattern. The first breakout has a 50% chance of failing.
Emini failed breakout below inside bar on weekly chart
The S&P 500 Emini futures broke below the prior week’s bull inside bar but reversed to close near the high. It is likely a failed breakout from the i pattern. Bulls want a reversal higher from a wedge bottom and a trend channel line overshoot. They want at least another leg higher from a higher low major trend reversal. The bulls will need to create consecutive bull bars closing far above the June 28 high to increase the odds of a test of the June 2 high.
Emini bull inside bar on weekly chart
The S&P 500 Emini futures weekly candlestick was a bull inside bar closing near the high. Bears failed to create follow-through selling this week. Bulls want a consecutive bull bar next week, something they have failed to do since April. They want a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17). Since this week was an inside bar, the Emini is in breakout mode. The bear trend line remains a resistance above.
Emini June bear bar with long tail below, TCL overshoot
The S&P 500 Emini futures June monthly candlestick was a bear bar with a long tail below. It also overshot the trend channel line. Bears want a measured move down to 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range height or lower around 3450, based on the height of the 12-month trading range starting from May 2021. The bulls from the January top as a two-legged pullback. They want a reversal higher from a wedge bull flag (February 24, May 20 and June 17) and a trend channel line overshoot.
Emini reversed higher from trend channel line overshoot
The S&P 500 Emini futures reversed higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom. The bears failed to create follow-through selling below May low on the weekly chart. The bulls want a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom. The bulls will need to create follow-through buying next week to convince traders that a reversal higher may be underway.
Emini breakout below May, trend channel line overshoot
The S&P 500 Emini futures gapped down and broke below the May low. Bears want a continuation to measured moves below around 3600 and 3450. While the bulls have a trend channel line overshoot, they need at least a micro double bottom or a strong bull reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively.
Emini sell vacuum retest of 5/20 low
The S&P 500 Emini futures stalled around the Feb/March low and the bulls failed to get follow-through buying. The bears got the second leg sideways to down they were expecting. Odds favor at least slightly lower prices next week. As strong as the sell-off is, it could simply be a sell vacuum test of the 5 weeks trading range low. If there is a breakout, odds slightly favor a downside breakout more.
Emini possible failed breakout below trading range?
The S&P 500 Emini futures May candlestick closed as a doji bar. The bears failed to get a follow-through bear bar. Bulls see the move down from the January high as a 2 legged pullback and a wedge bull flag (January 24, February 24 and May 20). Bulls will need to close June as a strong bull bar near the high to increase the odds of a failed breakout below the trading range.
Emini strong bull reversal bar closing at high
The S&P 500 Emini futures traded higher closing above the 9-month trading range low (February low). The 7 consecutive bear bars were unsustainable and were a form of a sell climax.
Odds slightly favor a 2 legged sideways to up pullback beginning. However, because of the strong selling since March, traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after the pullback is over.
