Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market formed a Crude oil strong bear leg testing near the March 10 low. The next target for the bears is the June 23 breakout point of the rally. Bulls hope the bottom of the trading range will provide support.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week formed a bear bar closing near its low, testing the March 10 low.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate additional follow-through bear bars breaking below the April 17 low, or whether the market would stall around the April 17 low, followed by a pullback to test the middle of the trading range in the weeks ahead.
- Bulls see the current move as a bear leg testing the bottom of the trading range (March 10).
- Bulls hope the bottom of the trading range will provide support.
- Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to demonstrate control.
- Bears generated follow-through selling after the breakout below the triangle over the past two weeks.
- Bears got a strong bear leg testing the bottom of the trading range (March 10 low).
- The move down is in a tight bear channel, indicating persistent selling.
- The next target for the bears is the June 23 breakout point of the rally.
- If the market trades higher, bears want the pullback to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks and prominent upper tails, and the 20-week EMA to act as resistance.
- They want the pullback to form a lower high, followed by a larger second leg sideways to down.
- Bears need additional follow-through selling to increase the odds of a sustained move lower.
- Crude oil formed a strong bear leg testing near the bottom of the 16-week trading range.
- The move down from the May 18 high is in a tight bear channel, indicating strong bears.
- The market is likely Always In Short.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate additional follow-through bear bars breaking below the March 10 low to test the June 23 breakout point.
- Or will the market stall around the March 10 low area, followed by a pullback to test the 20-week EMA in the weeks ahead?
The Daily crude oil chart
- The market gapped up on Monday, followed by sideways-to-down trading for the rest of the week.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate additional follow-through selling to test the March 10 low, or whether the market would find support around the April 17 low, followed by a pullback in the weeks ahead.
- Bulls see the current move as a bear leg testing the bottom of the trading range (March 10).
- Bulls hope to get a pullback to test the 20-day EMA.
- Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to demonstrate control.
- Bears generated follow-through selling after the breakout below the triangle over the past two weeks.
- Bears have created a tight bear channel from the May 18 high, testing the bottom of the trading range near the March 10 low.
- The next target for the bears is the June 23 breakout point.
- If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance, forming another lower high and a larger double top bear flag.
- Bears want any pullback to be weak, with overlapping bars and prominent upper tails.
- Bears need sustained follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful reversal.
- Crude oil formed a tight bear channel testing the March 10 low.
- The market has likely flipped into Always In Short.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate additional follow-through selling to test the June 23 breakout point. If a pullback develops, traders will watch whether the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line acts as resistance.
- Or will the market find support around the March 10 low area, followed by a pullback toward the middle of the trading range in the weeks ahead instead?
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