Trading Update: Wednesday March 4, 2026
E-mini end of day video review
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- E-mini tried to get the downside breakout below the 4-month prolonged tight trading range. The bears failed to get the downside breakout, and yesterday reversed up, forming a bull bar closing on its high. This increases the odds of the bulls getting a follow-through bar today.
- The bulls are hopeful that today will form a follow-through bar after yesterday’s bull reversal bar. This would increase the odds of the bulls getting a second leg up in a test of the February 25th follow-through bar.
- Next, the bulls want to break out to 7,000 and test the all-time high.
- Because of the higher timeframe context, the odds are that the bulls will probably get a trend resumption. This means that the prolonged trading range on the daily chart is likely a bull flag.
- 7,000 is an important round number, and that increases the odds that the market continues to spend a lot of time at that location. Looking further ahead, because the monthly chart has a lot of overlapping bars late in a rally, it increases the odds that the market may not go much above 7,000. This also means that most of the year could be around the 7,000 round number.
- Because the higher timeframes are bullish, the odds are that the downside is likely limited. Just like the past couple of days, if the bears get a downside breakout, it’ll likely get bought.
- So far, the bulls are doing a good job getting the follow-through bar during the U.S. session. Traders will pay close attention to see if the bulls can get the bar to close on its high, which would increase the odds of a second leg up in a test of the all-time high.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a gap up on the open and initially found sellers above yesterday’s high, leading to a pullback to the four low.
- While the bears did a good job with bars two and three, because of the buying pressure on bar one and the market getting a gap up, the odds favored a Trading Range open and not a bear trend.
- The bulls managed to get a strong reversal up with bar eight and follow through on bar nine. This increased the odds of a second leg up.
- The bulls did a good job getting a strong rally up to bar 12. However, because of the overnight buying pressure, there’s an increased risk that the rally to bar 12 is a late leg.
- As of Bar 32, the market has spent a lot of time going sideways after the Bar 12 strong breakouts. This makes the probabilities close to 50-50 for the Bulls and the Bears and increases the risk that the Bears end up getting a double top and reversal down, in a test of the bar one breakout point. Bar one is important because that’s a location where the bears got trapped.
- The market has been forming a bull channel since yesterday. The bulls broke above the top of the bull trend channel line with bar 12, and that increases the risk that the market goes sideways and tests the bottom of the bull trend line, which would be around 6,865.
- The most important thing to recognize is that the market is in breakout mode after the strong rally up to bar 12. While the odds slightly favor the bulls, traders must respect the selling pressure by the Bears. This means that probabilities are close to 50/50, and therefore most traders should wait and see what the breakout up or down looks like.
- Even with all the sideways trading after bar 12, because the market’s always in long in a bull trend, the odds still slightly favor the bulls getting a second leg after bar 12.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
