Trading Update: Wednesday April 9, 2025
Emini end of day video review
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S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini is down 20% from the All-Time High. Investors will see this as a great opportunity to begin to increase their positions with a discounted price. This increases the odds of a bounce over the next several weeks.
- At the moment, the odds are against a successful reversal up to the All-Time high without a second leg down.
- Monday, a weak bull reversal bar with a tail was formed, and yesterday, sellers were found above the bull bar.
- The selloff down to Monday’s low is strong, and the odds favored sellers on the first reversal up.
- Yesterday formed a Low 1 Short. The bears are hopeful that it leads to more selling. The problem that the bears have is that the market has had an 800-point sell-off in the past four trading days. This is extreme selling and increases the odds that the market will have to go sideways for several days to relieve the bears.
- Yesterday’s bear reversal bar is a large bar with a prominent tail below it. Both of these reasons increase the risk of buyers below and for today to form a disappointment bar for the bears. This means the odds favor today will likely be a trading range bar or a bull bar, not a bear trend bar closing on its low.
- Overall, today will likely disappoint the bears and not lead to a strong bear reversal bar.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Yesterday, the Emini sold off and formed a bear trend. The Emini formed a wedge bottom on the 45-minute chart around 2:15 AM EST this morning.
- The bulls have a potential higher low at 8:15 AM EST. They are hopeful that today will rally above the 3:45 AM EST Globex high and create a 2nd leg up for the bulls.
- You may be wondering why I am using a 45-minute chart. The reason for this is that three 15-minute bars make up one 45-minute bar. I often watch the 15-minute chart because three 5-minute bars make up one 15-minute bar. Time frame is not important because price action is fractal; therefore, what matters is one’s ability to successfully trade the time frame they are viewing.
- Traders should pay attention to the 3:45 AM EST high as it will likely get tested sometime today.
- Most traders should not be in a rush on the open. There is typically an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
- This means that there is an 80% chance that if a trader waits for 6-12 bars on the open, they are unlikely to miss a big move, meaning most traders would be better off waiting.
- There is an 80% chance of an opening swing that typically begins before the end of the 2nd hour. This open swing often lasts two legs and two hours and starts typically after forming a double top/bottom, or a wedge top/bottom.
- This means that a trader can often wait for the formation of one of the patterns mentioned above to form and enter on a stop order. If traders can accurately diagnose the market, they might have close to a 50% probability of achieving twice their risk, which is a profitable trader’s equation.
- Yesterday, the market formed a low one short with bad context. This means that there are probably buyers below its low, and traders should pay attention to it as it will likely act as support.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a strong 2nd leg up last week. I have been saying that the three-bar bull breakout to March 5th was strong enough for a 2nd leg up and some measured move based on the three-bar breakout, which the bulls got last week.
- The March 5th bull breakout is strong enough that it may need three legs up and a credible wedge top to form before the bears can get a reversal down.
- Right now, the bulls have two legs up, including the bull breakout. This means that the bulls will probably get at least one more leg up before the bears can get a credible wedge top.
- Yesterday formed a inside bar which is a High 1 buy setup. The bulls are hopeful that today will be a strong enough entry bar closing on its high, increase the odds of a 2nd leg up.
- Next, the bulls want a close above the April 3rd high.
- The bears are hopeful that the daily chart is forming a trading range. While this is possible, the bulls have a lot of closes above the moving average. This increases the odds of higher prices.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
