Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bear trend bar with a prominent tail below. The bull body gap with week of 8-19-2024 closed.
On the daily chart, the market had lot more two sided trading than one would guess from the weekly chart. The daily exponential moving average (EMA) is also starting to cross below the weekly EMA.
The market also triggered the Q4 quarterly bar by going below the October 2024 low.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a replica of last week – a bear trend bar with a prominent tail below and almost exactly the same size.
- Last week’s report had mentioned that it was not likely for this week to be a strong follow-through bar.
- This was based on the fact that last week had closed above the lows of some of the bull bars on the left, and so this week was likely to be a bad follow-through bar – a pause bar.
- Instead, this week went down more or less starting Monday – We don’t see much of tail on top of this week.
- Prior reports have said that since we are in a trading range, the bull body gap with week of 8-19-2024 should close soon. This week met that expectation.
- Last week’s report also mentioned the monthly exponential moving average (EMA) as a target. This is now within reach, since there is not much in the way of support in between.
- Bulls do not want another bear bar next week. They want to start a leg up to the weekly EMA.
- These three consecutive bears have the most uniform body compared to any recent three consecutive bull bars. This shows the strength of the bears. There will likely be two legs down based on this move.
- Where will the sellers come in? Likely above this week’s high. The market has also fallen far enough below the weekly EMA, that the weekly EMA should act as resistance.
- So whats likely for next week – Next week could be an inside pause bar.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- This week is two legs down with two big bear trend bars representing the start of each leg with bad follow-through and pause day in between.
- Monday is an outside down bear bar – it triggered the buy signal bar of last Friday and then went below Friday’s low and closed with a small tail below.
- Tuesday is bad follow-through – a doji bear bar with a body in the middle of the bar closing above Monday’s low. Wednesday is an inside bull doji buy signal bar.
- Looking back, Wednesday acted as a pause bar, as Thursday did not even trigger the Wednesday bar.
- Thursday is the 2nd bear trend bar of the week, representing the start of the 2nd leg down, closing around the low of Tuesday.
- Friday is bad follow-through, a doji bear bar with almost no body and a long tail below closing in the upper half of the bar.
- As bearish as the weekly chart looks, the daily chart is having trouble getting good follow-through to bear bars other than the 3 bear trend bars starting the move down two weeks ago.
- For the past two weeks, the market looks like a bear leg in trading range. Next week, the market should go sideways to up – possibly to the close of last Friday’s buy signal bar. It was a reasonable buy signal bar, and the market should allow those traders to exit breakeven.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
