Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bull trend bar with a prominent tail below and a close right at monthly EMA – exponential moving average.
The daily chart had a bear day on Monday and then made a two-legged move up to the monthly EMA. It is finally above the daily EMA for the first time since the middle of February.
The monthly bar is now a doji bull bar with a long tail below. There are three more days in the month. As mentioned in the past couple of reports, the month will likely not get bigger since the range of the 1st two weeks of the month has already made the month a really big bar. So it’s less likely for the market to break above the current month’s high over the remaining three days of the month. For that matter, it’s also less likely for the next couple of months to break out above or below the current month, since the quarterly bar is also already big.
Last week’s report summary had mentioned that the midpoint of the monthly bar around 18250, and the bull body gap of December 2021 close at 18503, would act as magnets. While the market is sufficiently above these magnets, the moves these days are big. So, there is still a chance the bears try to close below at least one of them by the end of the month.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is big bull trend bar with a prominent tail below closing right at monthly EMA.
- Prior reports have talked about the monthly EMA possibly acting as resistance now.
- This is one of those instances when bulls need one more strong bull bar, like what happened with the 8-5-24 bar.
- However, big bars at important resistance usually do not have good follow-through. So next week is not likely to be a good bull bar.
- So, bears will sell this week to avoid a good bull follow-through bar.
- This week also closed the bear body gap with 09-03-24. All is not lost for the bears though. They need to avoid a good bull follow-through bar.
- This is another reason why bulls want a good follow-through bar, and bears want to avoid one.
- Bears want a sideways to down move over the next several weeks, so they can attempt another leg down.
- If bulls get a strong follow-through bar, then the close of this week will likely become temporary support, such that if the market revisits the close a few weeks later, it should find buyers.
- This would be similar to what happened with the close of week of 8-5-2024. 8-5-2024 was a reasonable sell the close bar – bull doji buy signal bar after 3 strong bear bars. However, next week was a strong bull entry bar, which trapped anybody who sold the prior bar. As a result, when the market revisited the 8-5-2024 bar a few weeks later, it acted as support.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- The daily chart started with a bear day Monday, and then had a two-legged move to the monthly EMA.
- Last week’s move down looked like a bear leg in trading range. The question was where is the low of that leg – Last week was still in the upper half of the big bull bar of 4-9.
- The bear bar on Monday made the market get to the midpoint of the 4-9 big bull bar. Tuesday is a bull bar, with a doji follow-through bull bar on Wednesday, reaching the EMA and closing just below the EMA.
- So now the question is – Will the daily EMA again act as resistance?
- Thursday is an outside up bull bar, that first went below the low of Tuesday and then reversed up and closed strongly above the daily EMA. This marked the start of the 2nd leg up.
- Bulls needed a good follow-through bar on Friday. Friday is a smaller bull bar with a tail below closing slightly above the monthly EMA.
- As mentioned in the sections above, bears do not want another bull bar Monday next week. They want the early part of next week to be as bearish as possible, so as to make the monthly chart as bearish as possible.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
