Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures month December 2024 is bad sell signal bar – a bear doji reversal bar with a long tail above. November was the all-time high close of the year.
The week is a short trading week. It is a bear doji buy signal bar with a long tail below. It went below the low of last week and the week before and then reversed up at the exponential moving average (EMA).
The Q4 quarterly bar ended as a doji bull bar closing just below the mid-point and below the prior quarter high. It is a bad sell signal bar, but in the upper half of the prior quarter doji bar, which means the low of this quarter will likely get triggered within the next bar or two.
Bears wanted Q3 to be the highest quarterly close of the year. They wanted Q4 to close below Q3 close. They want a sideways move for the next several quarters that allows them to start a leg downwards.
Bulls wanted the opposite. They wanted Q4 to be a bull trend bar.
Well, the market disappointed both – Bears did not get a close below Q3, but bulls also did not get a trend bar. They both got their minimum. Bulls got a bull close, and bears got a close below the mid-point.
The yearly bar is a non-climactic bull bar with a prominent tail above. Earlier monthly reports have made the case for the yearly bar to be a bad entry bar. That did not turn out to be the case. Bears did produce a bear doji bar for the month of December with a long tail above, but they need a good entry bar in January.
Is it likely for 2025 to be a bull trend bar without a tail below? It is less likely. Even if 2025 is a bull bar, there will likely be a tail below. It is more likely for 1st half of 2025 to pullback, and then the market will decide whether to end the year as a doji bar or not. The September monthly report has a detailed commentary on the yearly chart which is still valid.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The December month bar is a bad sell signal bar – a doji bear bar with a long tail above.
- The market has been in a trading range since July. Bears likely sold the high of July, scaled in higher and made money.
- Bulls needed a series of bull bars closing above the July high to convince traders that a new leg up is starting.
- Bears now need a good entry bar.
- One of the bull targets is the Measured Move (MM) of the high close of 2021 and the low close of 2022. This is based on the fact that the body gap with the high close of 2021 is still open. This target is at 23810.75.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a doji bear bar with a long tail below.
- The previous report on 12-16 had said a few things –
- We have likely seen the high of 2024 as of that week.
- Buyers below low of the big bar of 12-2 would likely make a scalp of an average bar size.
- If the market goes down the following week, it will likely reverse around the lower tail and if it instead goes up, will likely reverse somewhere around the upper 1/3 of the 12-16 bar
- The next two weeks would likely be within the range of the week of 12-16 since that bar was so big.
- The market mostly met these expectations – The market did go slightly below the low of 12-16 and then reversed at the EMA.
- While this week is a bad buy signal bar, it is reversing from near the low of the big bar of 12-16 and the EMA, so the market will likely go higher so bears can attempt a good sell signal bar from around the high of 12-16.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
