Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a big bull bar with prominent tails. This week of 4-7 is big up with big down of last week, likely leading to more sideways.
The daily chart has big bars with tails on most days.
The monthly bar is doji bear bar with a long tail below with a small body in the upper half. This is the biggest month in recent past and is the size of the July and August 2024 months combined. There are two and a half more weeks left in the month. It is unlikely the monthly bar will get much bigger. This means the rest of the weeks in the month will likely be sideways.
This is only two weeks into the new quarter, but the quarterly bar is also already as big as Q3 2024, and Q1 2025, which are big bars. This also makes it more likely that the next two monthly bars will be mostly within the range of the current quarterly bar, and not likely to break out, to make the quarterly bar even bigger. This may coincide with the fact that there is a 90-day pause in the tariffs.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a big bull bar with prominent tails, having a lot of overlap with last week’s big bear bar.
- Last week’s report said that this week is less likely to be a follow-through bear bar since last week’s bar is a sell climax bar.
- This week’s bar met that expectation.
- Prior reports have also said that the monthly exponential moving average (EMA) is likely a resistance, since the market fell far below it, and the market trapped buyers in and sellers out.
- The market made it close to the monthly EMA on Wednesday and reversed down, to end the week with a prominent tail above.
- This week is a bad buy signal bar, since its such a big bar. This week has likely trapped bears in and bulls out. So, the market should revisit prior lows and if so, should find buyers.
- Given two big weekly bars, what is likely next week? A smaller bar. Possibly an inside bar. Bears would like to create a good sell signal bar at monthly EMA, for another leg down.
- This week has also closed the bear body gaps to the left, except for the bear body gap with 09-03-24, around the monthly EMA.
- Bears want to keep this gap open. If the gap stays open, one target for the bears is at 15995.75 – the measured move (MM) of the gap between the 09-03-24 close and the high close of the week of 2-10.
- This is a reasonable target, given the low of this week is at 16460, although earlier sections have also said that this monthly is unlikely to get bigger, so it is likely a few months away.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- The report from two weeks ago had said that 3-28 is a surprise bear bar, likely sellers above it. The sellers came on 4-2 when the market went above the 3-28 bar.
- There was further surprise when 4-3 is a bear bar gapping down and closing below monthly EMA, and 4-4 is a very big follow-through bar trapping any bulls that had bought earlier at monthly EMA expecting it to act as support .
- This likely made the monthly EMA resistance.
- This week started with gap down and early selling, but closed the day as a bull bar with big tails. It is a bad follow-through to big bear bar of Friday.
- Tuesday is an inside sell signal bar, for start of possible second leg down.
- Wednesday triggered Tuesday’s sell signal bar but reversed and ended up as a really big bull bar closing at the daily EMA, and near the monthly EMA. At this point, the daily EMA has crossed below the monthly EMA.
- Big bull bars at resistance attract sellers – so Thursday is an inside bear bar with a tail below. It also allows the trapped bears from Tuesday that scaled in higher at Wednesday’s close to exit breakeven.
- Friday is another inside bull buy signal bar, in the upper half of the range of the week, with the daily and monthly EMA not far above, and hence a bad buy signal bar.
- At this point, we have an outside, inside, outside, inside, inside day – essentially in breakout mode.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
