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Q: at slide.2, AL says that IF you are seeing that the things shouldn’t become but it is happening, don’t deny and take op.side trade. During an example of MC-16 at slide.2, He says that sell after 3 or 4 bear bar closing at their extreme with growing body, But at slide.4, at TC example box, he says that sell after 4 bar bull spike at p-back after bear TC exp reversal attempt will fail. if we were gonna expect 1st reversal will fail, we don't have to sell at slide.2. on the contrary, if we expect bulls are gaining control, we do not sell after 4 bull bar strong p-back at slide.4. This is something confusing and discrepancy here for me. could you explain the difference and what would you do as a pros? what is it that i can' see?
is anyone help me with this topic because this reversals destroy my account and there is a conflicting statements here?
as i said above, some expressions make me confused. at this screenshot AL says that even IF always-in short, unless it hits prior HL, traders don't exit long. but at the prior screenshot, he says that after 5 consecutive bear bars closing at their lows, don't deny it. just short the market because they are selling ??? this doesn't fit with each other. will we short or not ? to me i think it is %50 probability. is that true ?
s.18
buy the close bull BO above prior high. stop below bull BO. buying for scalps and swinging some of the trade. first PB probably minor (PB will be flag or TR, and resume to test the close)
bar 17 doji at HOD is a warning to BTC bull scalpers to maybe exit at break even, Bar 16 close. knowing some profit taking and a minor PB could follow. that's taking the early exit for the portion of scalpers not wanting to hold thru a PB.
Other bull scalpers have their wide stop below the bull BO. and will scale in on the first PB knowing the first PB will be minor. the first PB that they scaled in from was disappointing for bulls so bulls might look to sell out of their longs at breakeven profit (midway Breakeven price between 1st and 2nd scale in entry). so strong bulls want to sell a PB, and so do bears to enter short for a second leg. thats the logic behind the big bears Bars as to why the markets always in short, atleast for a 2nd leg or scalp down. not for a Rev.
and btw for bull Scalpers, they have no intention of ever letting that stop get hit, its a safety net. and they will scale in on the PB, above their stop loss, and exit before if market does hit that stop.
swing traders can hold through that always in short reversal because their stop is below the HL and as long as the markets above that HL, even if AIS, his premise is valid. and could even add to his swing on a potential HL for atleast another swing (if the 2nd leg down from bears was weak and stalled out assuming)
the micro channel is stating bulls are buying above the low of every bar, hence the micro channel, and at the first opportunity in a micro channel to buy below the low of the bar, they probably will, the PB will prob be minor.
so when you the 2nd bear bar, and then the 3rd, then the 4th, does it look like bulls bought the first PB below the low of the prior bar, or does it look like bulls are buying during this PB? No.
opposite of that happened. so understand the lower probability event is unfolding and act accordingly, risk management scenario for bulls looking to exit and maybe short and for bears now looking to get short
Thank you so much for detailed interpretation.
As far as I understand here, two different point of view either swing traders and scalpers. When AL says that we need to sell after 3 - 4 -5 bar, he is saying for scalpers not swing traders. I was thinking whether i need to exit based on swing trades. I guess i should not exit after 5 bar bear micro channel and wait and see the 2nd leg attempt from bears. then maybe we can come to a conclusion. is that true?
Thanks again taking your time.
yes, watching the scalping's vs swing trading portion of the course is one of the light bulb sections that brings a deeper understanding of reading the price action.
yes that sell entry is for the scalpers. scalpers need high probability, greater than 60%, because they trade with 1:1 R:R. so when the probabilty shifted towards the bears after that 3rd-4th bear bar. the high probability scalp setup was selling the bear BO for a MM. bears could then enter for a swing if a MTR rev, like a LH MTR forms on the resumption high close test after this strong bear move.
