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So, Al say that there is a TR and so the BO of the bear has not so much value, same for the bulls then (31D)
But… the 2nd BO from Bears, where there is also some disappointment bars, why that one didn’t make senso to buy cause of the failed BO at the low of the TR?
There is a difference between the two situations. In the first case, there is bullish activity and a great bear bar which did not get follow through. On the 6th bull bar with great close, well, where are the bears? Right - Exit if premise changes.
The second situation is different. The bears are not going to sell the largest bar at the bottom, in general, as a scalp. If they do, recognize where the stop is. Why will they not sell for a scalp? Because it is the 10th bar in a bear series and potentially a second leg trap. Especially with the bear bar being almost 2x the average size bar.
However, noone is "perfect". So if one did take that last sell as a scalp, on the 8th bar, which is a really good bull bar, it is reasonable to exit early. The premise will have changed. Or, simply let the stop be hit.
There isn't "being perfect" in this game. Just reasonably good.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Hi, thank you for your answer. What I mean is:
There is a big up - big down… big confusion.
So the Bears, seeing on their 2nd BO (after the bulls tried to BO the TR with a Fail), with the overall same situation of the 1st BO from Bears, so a Bear flag in the same point of the 1st flag after the BO… why they didn’t exits scared of the fact that could have been a TR and so a trap?
I mean it was big up down big confusion, so it could have made sense to thought about a TR trap.
Thank you very much, a question is:
I spend VERY much time reading the charts and trying to understand the PA, but I’ve always problems understanding the behaviour of the bulls and bears in some situations.
I see every pattern but I don’t understand the behaviour…
Can I ask you how did you get to this point? What is your tip for start understanding what is the behaviour of BS and BR without someone that explain to you? Cause the problem is that I never know if I’m reading right or wrong what I think I’m seeing.
thank you very much.
There are not any shortcuts. However, there are shorter paths.
Working through Al's course with understanding (not rushing through, though it is very tempting) is critical. Each lecture builds on the previous ones. Additionally, studying the daily markups which Richard does, reinforces the concepts extremely well. It is an under utilized resource in my opinion.
Begin with swing trading and observing how prices move (vs where you think they will move). Before too long, you will see that prediction is a fallacy but . . . the daily markups often result in profitable trades. When you recognize this, you will focus on matching the developing talents against a good solution target. Over time, that will close the gap in the quickest possible manner, with exception to finding someone who guides you through the critical elements.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Hy Allessandro,
i dont really understand you question for 100% but i will try it either.
Al talks in the first example (the BR BO) what to do if you were goining short after the Big BR Bar (B1) and the market did not go in your direction. The wisest thing to to is to Buy back your Shorts. Bars like B2 showing some strengh from the Bulls and making a PB after the BR BO unlikely and the BO attempt fails.
Bears loose faith of another Leg down and Buy back their shorts above B2 and the B before B2.
Espeacily after B2 the Last Bears exited and that buy back from the Bears lifted the Market up. because a lot of buy orders from the Bears were there and become triggered.
The same situation repeated with the BL BO that followed.
Bulls bought above B3 and betting on a second leg up or a Strong BO. But it did not happen. These Bulls are trapped and still in their long position. A few of them exited below B4, but most of them scales in at B6 and Sell Back their positions at brakeven or with a small loss or with profit.
This Back selling creates a Strong BR Leg down. Because al the Bulls get out of their positions and this selling presses the market down.
But why it did not make sense to buy the Secong BO from the BR´s, you mean why it makes no sense to buy the PB after the BO from the BR´s?
if yes, i would say because there were trapped bulls and the bulls werent that strong to creat a sucesfull PB. The H1 + H2 (or have bad FT) failed. A closing Triangle followed wich is a TR.
The BL BO from the Triangle failed because no bulls were buying, these bulls who bought were looking to get out of their position with the smallest loss. Wich means bulls are selling out of their position and only waiting for the right moment.
You could have bought for example the H1 or H2 and exit with a small loss or with a profit. But these were only scalps. For a swing the BL BO wasnt strong enough to become strong FT after the PB. The PB from the BL Leg up shows strengh from the BR´s and failed, then creates a TR (Triangle).
Best Regards
Hi, thank you for your answer. What I mean is:
There is a big up - big down… big confusion.
So the Bears, seeing on their 2nd BO (after the bulls tried to BO the TR with a Fail), with the overall same situation of the 1st BO from Bears, so a Bear flag in the same point of the 1st flag after the BO… why they didn’t exits scared of the fact that could have been a TR and so a trap?
I mean it was big up down big confusion, so it could have made sense to thought about a TR trap.
Thank you very much, a question is:
I spend VERY much time reading the charts and trying to understand the PA, but I’ve always problems understanding the behaviour of the bulls and bears in some situations.
I see every pattern but, sometimes, I don’t understand the behaviour behind some PA…
Can I ask you how did you get to this point? What is your tip for start understanding what is the behaviour of BS and BR without someone that explain to you? Cause the problem is that I never know if I’m reading right or wrong what I think I’m seeing.
thank you very much.
If i understand you Right, you mean other traders might have Seen the big up big down as confusion and a possible trap.
This could be possible but your Never know what guidlines other traders Are using to do Not get in a wrong trade. Not everyone is using Price Action guidlines or Concepts.Or you can Not know why Computers Are Buying the breakout and it failed . You cant say that the BO might fail until the next Bars Are printed, this one could be sucesfull to. Nobody knows.
the only thing you can do is placing a Trade and hopeing that the probability is on yourside. You cant See the Future, this is Not possible, you can bet when you think that probability is on your side. A good SB can fail, there isnt a 100%.
I had the Same Problem that i did not know if im Right or wrong. It isnt gone. But it is gone when im Analyse the End of Day Chart, thats where my core attention is at the Moment. But when im Analyse live (im Not trading For the Moment, i want to study First) i had this feelings more often.
For me i personally found that my mind Needs something Like a trading landscape and guidlines from the beginning of the day until the End of the day. This is what im Building and Training with my End of Day Charts.
for example what does the market Offers me to anylze First:
Gap > Big, small, moderate
1st Bar > with or Counter, strong weak, same with next Bars
Possible MM Targets from Gap
the Open pattern
the Open range
wich Day is unfolding a Trend or trading Range Day
the BO After the OR, or was it a Trend from the Open
thats only a few, for visualisation what i think.
It helped me a lot to Study things that where at the beginning of the Chart because i dont think it Helps your mind if you Are confused with the First few Bars and for example a Big gap, or a Small one, or what comes if there where a Small Open Range or a Big one, what is possible if the BO from the Open Range is weak or strong.
I can recommend you to start from the beginning of the Chart it often Sets up the Energy for the Rest of the Day.
Best regards.
