Trading Update: Tuesday October 1, 2024
End of day video review
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See Price Action Rose’s YouTube channel for another End of day review.
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a High 1 buy signal bar, closing near its high yesterday closing on its high.
- While yesterday was a good buy signal bar for the Bulls, the context was bad. It forced bulls to buy above the 5,800-round number at the top of a tight trading range, far from the 20-period moving average.
- This increases the risk of sellers exceeding yesterday’s high, which is forming bad follow-through for the bulls.
- The bears are hopeful that today will form a strong reversal bar closing on its low. This would increase the odds of lower prices and a test of the daily moving average mentioned above.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market has formed a tight trading range from most of the overnight and early morning hours. The bears formed a downside reversal during the 8:30 AM EST report bar. The target for the bears is yesterday’s low, which will probably get retested.
- The early morning selloff is strong enough that the odds favor a 2nd leg down for the bear. This means that the best the bulls will probably get is a minor reversal and a trading range, but not a bull trend.
- The bears formed a strong downside breakout bar on bar 1, which increased the odds of lower prices.
- The selloff down to bar 6 is strong enough that the odds favor a 2nd leg down. However, the market is now at yesterday’s bar 60 low, which increases the odds of sideways trading.
- The selloff down to bar 8 is becoming climatic, which increases the odds of sideways trading and a pause in the selling. The bears want a strong breakout below yesterday’s low. Because yesterday is a large bull bar, there is an increased risk of buyers below yesterday’s low.
- Because of the strength of the selling, the odds favor a bear trend day or a trading range day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
