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Nasdaq 100 Possible Sideways Move at Monthly Ema

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Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a doji bull inside bar with a close around the middle of the bar. This is part of possible sideways move at monthly EMA – exponential moving average, at least for a couple of bars.

The daily chart essentially had alternating bull/bear days with prominent tails – sign of trading range price action. As mentioned in last week’s report, this sideways action is likely because the monthly bar is already a big bar and at support.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Weekly Possible Sideways Move at Monthly Ema
  • The week is an inside bull doji bad buy signal bar.
  • This was likely after the big monthly bar at support – the monthly EMA.
  • Next week is the last full week of the month, and the following Monday, the last day of the month and quarter. Bulls want a bull bar next week and the Monday of the following week, to add as big a tail below on the monthly chart, and possibly to close above the prior quarter low at 20322.25.
  • As mentioned in prior reports, the prior quarter bar is a bad sell signal bar – a bull bar closing below midpoint, so bulls want to close above its low.
  • While this is a reasonable target, it means the market next week has to close as a bull bar or at least a doji bull bar close to this week’s high, followed by a bull bar on March 31 as well. This is less likely given the bad buy signal bar this week.
  • What is more likely is that the market will sell off on Monday or trigger the bad buy signal bar and then sell off, and buyers will come in lower to end the week as a doji bar again.
  • Bears on the other hand want to close the month at a low.
  • As has happened in the past, the last day of the month could again change the shape of the monthly and quarterly bar.
  • Bulls may end up buying next week into the following Monday just to make the month and quarter look as less bearish as possible, and then sell in the 1st week of April.
  • If bears end next week as a bear bar closing on its low at the monthly EMA, bulls will likely buy the following week because this week is a bad sell signal bar, so they don’t expect two consecutive bear bars at support.

The Daily NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Daily Sideways at Monthly Ema Continues
  • The market had alternating bull and bear days with tails indicating trading range price action. It also means bad buy and sell signal bars.
  • Monday is a bull bar closing above Friday’s bull bar – This is the first time since the move down that there are 2 consecutive bull closes. This made it likely that there would be a 2nd leg up – even if for one bar.
  • Tuesday is a bear bar signifying a pull back below Monday – also a bad sell signal bar.
  • Wednesday is a bull bar that went above Tuesday but closed below Tuesday’s high – expected as Tuesday is a bad buy signal bar.
  • Thursday is a bear doji inside sell signal bar – Friday triggered it but ended as a bull doji buy signal bar.
  • The market is essentially in breakout mode.
  • The daily EMA continues down, widening the gap with the weekly EMA.
  • There are targets both above and below – the daily EMA above and the green line shown as support below the monthly EMA. The question is which order do they get visited in.
  • The market has reached the bear channel lines and is getting rejected so far. Bulls want to close above it and reach the daily EMA.
  • The daily EMA is around the same level as the October low target mentioned above.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

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