Trading Update: Wednesday September 17, 2025
E-mini end of day video review
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini went outside down yesterday, ending the five-day bull microchannel on the daily chart.
- The Bulls are hopeful that the first reversal down will be minor and lead to buyers below yesterday’s low. Even if the market does find buyers below yesterday’s low, it’ll likely lead to a weak high one buy today, increasing the odds of sellers above today’s high.
- Because today is the FOMC announcement, there is an increased risk of volatility and the market forming a surprise. The Bears are hopeful that the FOMC announcement will be the catalyst that leads to a strong reversal down and the start of the test of the September 2nd low.
- At the moment, the market is far from the moving average and is likely to pull back for a couple of legs. However, because yesterday’s bar is small, it’s possible that the FOMC announcement goes above yesterday’s high and then reverses back down.
- The rally up from the September 2nd low is momentum buying late in a bull channel that’s lasted for several months. This means that the odds are the market is going to develop more selling pressure and likely test down to the September 2nd low over the next several weeks.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today is the FOMC announcement, which increases the risk of a lot of trading range price action leading up to the report.
- So far, the first 24 bars have formed a trending trading range day for the bears. With all the buying pressure from bars 13 to 25, the odds are the market will probably test back up to the 18 high over the next several bars.
- Traders should be flat at least 30 minutes going into the FOMC announcement.
- Traders should treat the FOMC announcement as a new trading day and the start of a new session. This means that traders should be open to anything happening.
- Most traders should consider not trading the announcement and trade half the day.
- If traders are going to trade the announcement, they should wait at least 10 minutes after the release of the report.
- FOMC typically increases the volatility, which means traders must trade smaller than what they usually trade. In general, traders should trade 20% of their normal position size.
- Lastly, while the FOMC announcement is scheduled at 2 pm ET, sometimes you get the surprise 30 minutes after the report. This means that the reaction may be delayed. If the market does not have a big reaction at 2 pm ET, traders should wait for a clearer reaction.
- The most important thing about the FOMC announcement is to trade small and be open to anything. And remember, price is truth. Regardless of your beliefs regarding the FOMC announcement, price must be your single source of truth.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
