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Weekly E-mini Bulls Need Follow-through Buying

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Market Overview: S&P 500 E-mini Futures

The weekly E-mini bulls need follow-through buying breaking strongly above the October 29 high. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-week EMA to act as support. Bears hope the market stalls near the November 12 high area, forming a double top bear flag and a lower high major trend reversal.

S&P500 E-mini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 E-mini chart

E-mini Weekly - Bulls Need FT Buying, Bears Want Lower High, Weekly E-mini Bulls Need Follow-through Buying
  • This week’s E-mini candlestick was a follow-through bull bar closing in its upper half, with a small tail above.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could generate a follow-through bull bar, or whether the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the November 12 high instead.
  • Recently, bears created the first streak of four consecutive bear bodies since February, testing the 20-week EMA.
  • They see the current rally as a retest of the prior trend extreme high (Oct 29) and want it to be weak — overlapping bars with poor follow-through.
  • They hope the market stalls near the November 12 high area, forming a double top bear flag and a lower high major trend reversal.
  • They are looking for a second leg sideways to down to retest the November 21 low.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want a failed breakout above the October 29 high and a higher high major trend reversal.
  • Bulls see the recent selloff (Nov 21) as a pullback that has alleviated overbought conditions.
  • They want a retest and breakout above the October 29 high, followed by a resumption of the bull trend from a double-bottom bull flag (Oct 10 and Nov 21).
  • Bulls need strong follow-through buying breaking above the October 29 high to increase the odds of trend continuation.
  • If the market trades lower, they want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
  • The recent pullback to the 20-week EMA (Nov 21) has traders asking whether overbought conditions have been sufficiently worked off.
  • Traders will watch the strength of the retest of the all-time high. Will it be strong, with follow-through buying pushing into new all-time highs, or weak — overlapping bars, long upper tails, dojis — forming a lower high instead?
  • For now, traders will watch whether bulls can create more follow-through buying, or whether the market stalls near the November 12 high.

The Daily S&P 500 E-mini chart

E-mini Daily - Bears Want LH MTR and Double Top Bear Flag
  • The market traded sideways to up for the week. Friday pushed higher but closed as a doji in its lower half, with a prominent tail above.
  • Previously, we said traders would watch whether bears could produce more follow-through selling — and if the market traded higher, whether it would stall around the 20-day EMA or the November 12 high.
  • So far, the market is forming a retest of the November 12 high.
  • Bulls hope the November 21 pullback has relieved overbought conditions.
  • They got a retest near the all-time high from a wedge bull flag (Nov 7, Nov 18, Nov 21) and a large double-bottom bull flag (Oct 10 and Nov 21).
  • If the market trades lower, bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support and to form a higher low (relative to Nov 21), followed by a second leg sideways to up.
  • They must create a strong retest and breakout above the October 29 high with sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of trend resumption.
  • Bears got a pullback from a large wedge pattern (May 19, Jul 31, Oct 29) and a lower high major trend reversal (Nov 12).
  • They see the current rally as a retest of the prior trend extreme (Oct 29) and want it to stall near the November 12 high, forming a double top bear flag (Nov 12 and Dec 5) and a larger lower high major trend reversal.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want a failed breakout above the all-time high (Oct 29) and a reversal from a higher-high major trend reversal.
  • They must produce consecutive strong bear bars closing near their lows and pushing far below the 20-day EMA to signal decisive control.
  • Since September, the market has made new all-time highs but with increasingly overlapping ranges — a sign of more two-sided trading and reduced momentum.
  • Traders will watch whether bulls can generate a strong retest and breakout above the all-time high (Oct 29), or whether the move stalls around the November 12 high, followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the November 21 low.

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