Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
This week the Gold GC-mini has been in a historic bull trend, but recent price action shows a parabolic wedge top followed by a deep retracement. Price continues to spend most of the time in the $5,000–$5,200 area. Price is volatile, creating opportunities for both sides.
This week Bears had great follow through with a strong red bar closing on its low. However, price did not go below the low of the previous week’s tail. This was only the 2nd time in over 7 months that Bears were able to post consecutive bear bars on the weekly chart. Price now holds at the bottom of a bull channel, closing above the major psychological price of $5000.
Most traders should be cautious buying the high and look to buy down near the moving average.
The Weekly Gold chart
- $5000-5200 area continues to dominate GC’s time and attention.
- Bottom of bull channel.
- Bulls want to create a micro double bottom which in turn would create a higher low in which to move up trailing stops and base risk off of.
- Bears want to print another decisive red bar, flipping the market firmly into always in short.
- Bears want to close a bar beneath the neckline of 4854.4 in order to make a lower low, disrupting the bullish market structure.
- Bears want to drive price down to the moving average, ideally closing consecutive bars beneath the moving average.
- Bulls want to continue to channel upward, maintaining the large distance between price and the moving average.
- At a minimum Bulls would like to keep price moving sideways until the moving average catches up then launching once again off of the moving average.
The Daily Gold chart
- 7 of the past 10 bars are bearish.
- 17 of the past 32 bars are bearish.
- Failed wedge created by today’s bear bar.
- Friday’s bar closed decisively beneath the moving average.
- Big opening gap down on Friday. Gap and go.
- Bears want the next bar to have a decisive follow through. This would break the overall bull channel and flip price action into always in short.
- Bulls want to treat this pullback as a buy the dip opportunity. Keeping price within the current bull channel.
- Bulls want to push price back above the moving average.
- Bulls want to prevent the bears from putting in a lower low.
- Bears want to close beneath major psyche number $5000.
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