Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 5:07 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
Weekly still favors Bitcoin bears until proven otherwise, daily is in a bear flag, and any deeper pullback toward $80,000 starts looking like a solid long-term buying zone for bulls targeting the 365-day moving average mean.
Transcript
Hi everyone, welcome to this week’s video analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly and daily charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course website.
Last week we looked at the iShares Bitcoin ETF chart, but today we’re back to the Bitcoin spot chart using Coinbase quotes. Let’s dive straight in.
Starting with the weekly timeframe. If you remember, last week I pointed out that the ETF chart had closed in a way that left a lot of bears trapped on that prior weekly bar. We said buyers would likely step in for at least a scalp from that level, and sure enough, this week’s price came right back to it and gave exactly that scalp-sized pullback. We also mentioned that the bearish move could still push lower toward that big green support zone before delivering another scalp, but interestingly, the market decided to give the scalp first, earlier than expected.
What’s really telling here is that the bears who shorted near the lows aren’t holding on very aggressively. They’re quick to cover. That reduces the real downside momentum and lowers the probability of seeing big, strong follow-through bear bars. In other words, the bears aren’t as committed as you’d expect in a truly powerful sell-off.
That said, we’re still inside a tight bear channel on the weekly chart, and as I’ve been saying for a while, the quality of this bear breakout just isn’t that great. It’s sloppy, not convincing. Until the bulls can print a couple of strong consecutive bull bars or at least break and close above the bear trend line, the safer assumption is still lower prices. So yes, I still think the bears have room for at least one more decent leg down.
How far could that leg go? In my view, it should find meaningful support in that higher green area we’ve been talking about. If you want the full panoramic picture, go back to last week’s monthly report—I laid it all out there with the monthly chart.
Looking ahead to the next few weeks, my base case remains sideways to down until the bulls prove the bears wrong with real strength. If price does drop toward, say, the $80,000 area, the trader’s equation starts looking attractive for bulls who are playing for a reversion to the mean—in this case, the 365-day moving average.
Now, let’s jump over to the daily chart.
After that sharp, tight bear channel—which was the strongest leg of what looks in like a spike-and-channel bear trend—price has spent the last couple of weeks moving mostly sideways with a slight upward bias. By doing that, the daily chart has already entered breakout mode. When you see prolonged sideways action after a strong trend leg, the odds between bulls and bears become much more balanced. Right now, the edge still leans slightly bearish, but it’s not overwhelming.
A quick reminder since we didn’t cover the daily last week (we were focused on the monthly and weekly special report): in real time this whole move looked like a bear breakout from a large trading range. That trading range delivered its measured move down and even went a little beyond it. Anytime price exceeds a measured move like that, it’s far more likely to be an exhaustion move than a healthy, constructive continuation. Exhaustion moves reverse more often than they keep going.
Inside this bear channel, the bulls who bought that lower low were able to scratch their trades and get out around breakeven. That gave them confidence to buy the next low. But here’s the key: that second low has never been retested. So there are still bulls trapped down there in the entire red zone. Every time price gets back into that red area, those trapped bulls will be looking to sell and get out, creating at least short-term resistance.
Right now, the immediate price action shows bears reversing from the top bear trend line. I often use a medium-term moving average as a proxy for a trend line, and in this case I’m using the 30-day moving average. Price almost touched it and reversed down with decent follow-through. Some price action traders my short here, swinging for that $80,000 area.
Personally, I’d prefer to see one more leg up—ideally a third leg that acts almost like a small bull breakout, pushing toward the $100,000 zone, stalling, and then reverse. That would set up a much cleaner high-probability short.
So to sum it up on the daily: I see roughly equal odds of continued sideways grinding or one more small leg higher. But when I zoom out, I still see higher probability for an eventual swing down rather than a swing up
That’s the current picture, folks. Weekly still favors the bears until proven otherwise, daily is in a bear flag, and any deeper pullback toward $80,000 starts looking like a solid long-term buying zone for bulls targeting the 365-day moving average mean.
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