Trading Update: Friday July 11, 2025
Emini end of day video review
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S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini has been in a tight trading range for the past couple of days.
- Yesterday formed a new all-time high above the July 3rd high, and so far today has sold off.
- I mentioned that the 9-bar full microchannel up to the July 3rd high was likely to get a second leg up. However, because the market was far from the moving average, the odds favored a trading range forming in the second leg, not going very far.
- The market is far from the moving average, which is a reflection of the fair price, and is at a new all-time high. Both of these stated reasons increase the odds of sideways to down over the next several days.
- Often, when the market gets too far from the moving average, especially late in a rally, traders will hesitate to buy because they see the risk is big. One way to reduce risk is to reduce your position, and this increases the selling and causes sideways trading.
- The Bears have done a good job of making the market go sideways, but they need to do more. Ideally, the bears need to start getting strong bear bars closing on their lows. Next, it would be better for the bears if they could get a series of strong bear bars.
- Without more selling pressure, the odds are we’re going to continue to go sideways and drag the moving average up to the current price
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The market has formed a trading range for the first 30 bars of the day.
- The open gap down and formed an opening reversal with bar 4. The bar for reversal is strong enough that the odds favored a couple of legs up to the moving average.
- Because of the big down based on the gap and the rally to the moving average up to bar 12, the odds favor a lot of trading range price action today.
- The bulls are hopeful that the market is forming a bull channel ever since the bar for the low of the day. This means that the bulls are hoping that the market will continue to create higher lows and higher highs and eventually break out and test yesterday’s close.
- With all the back-and-forth trading today, the odds are that today is going to continue to have a lot of trading range price action. This means there are probably sellers near the 27th high if the market gets back there.
- Today is Friday; therefore, weekly support and resistance are important. Traders should be mindful of the possibility of a late breakout near the end of the session as traders decide on the close of the weekly chart.
- Currently, the weekly chart is near the open of the week and therefore will probably try to close around that same price level.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
