Trading Update: Monday March 31, 2025
Emini end of day video review
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini gapped down today on the daily chart, closing below the March Low. The bears will view this as a second leg down, and they are hopeful that today will form a strong close on the monthly chart.
- The problem for the bears is that the selloff is getting climactic. This increases the odds of bears taking partial profits and the Emini getting a bounce.
- While the bears have done a good job with the selloff over the past couple of days, there are probably more buyers around today’s open than sellers. This means that today may try to form a bull reversal bar on the daily chart.
- If today forms a strong reversal bar closing on its high, that would increase the odds of bears buying back shorts above it, leading to a couple of legs up.
- The selloff over the past couple of days has been strong, and it trapped bulls on the way down.
- Because the selloff was strong, the bulls need a credible reversal bar with a strong entry bar, ideally if they are going to get a successful reversal up.
- Without a strong reversal up, the odds will favor a minor reversal into a trading range.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to see what today looks like. If the bulls get a strong reversal bar closing on its high, it will increase the odds of a 2nd leg up. If not, the odds will favor more sideways trading. Today is unlikely to become a strong bear trend day, which means the daily chart will likely form a bull trend bar or a trading range bar.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped down and formed an opening reversal with bar 4. The selloff on the higher time frames (see above) is becoming climactic, with an increased risk of a reversal up.
- This is why the bulls managed to get a reversal up with bars 5-6.
- Because of the reversal up with bars 5-6, today will likely be a bull trend, or a trading range day, but not a bear trend day.
- At the moment, the rally up to bar 8 is strong enough to get a 2nd leg up.
- Today is the final day of the month as well as the final day of the quarter. This increases the odds of a surprise late in the day as institutions adjust positions going into the next quarter.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
