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EURUSD Inside Bar in the Middle of the Trading Range

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a EURUSD inside bar in the middle of the trading range on the monthly chart. Bulls want a retest of the January 27 high, followed by a strong breakout above. Bears need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the 20-month EMA to show control.

EURUSD Forex market

The Monthly EURUSD Forex chart

EURUSD Monthly - Middle of TR, Inside Bar, EURUSD Inside Bar in the Middle of the Trading Range
  • May formed an inside bear bar, closing around the middle of its range with prominent tails.
  • Last month, we said the market remains in an 11-month trading range, and the middle of the range can act as a magnet and area of balance.
  • The market traded sideways around the middle of the trading range in May.
  • Bulls see the 12-month trading range as a large bull flag — a 25% pullback from the January 2025 rally — and want trend resumption from a double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 30).
  • They want a retest of the January 27 high, followed by a strong breakout above.
  • Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to demonstrate control.
  • Bears want a reversal from a wedge top (July 1, September 17, January 27), a lower high major trend reversal (April 17), and a head and shoulders top (September 17, January 27, April 17).
  • Bears need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the 20-month EMA and the August 1 low to shift the market into Always In Short.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want it to stall around the April 17 high, forming a double top bear flag, or around the February 10 high area.
  • The recent candlesticks have overlapping ranges around the middle of the trading range, indicating an area of balance.
  • Traders will watch whether bulls can create a retest of the top of the trading range or whether bears can create a retest of the 20-month EMA instead.
  • Until there is a decisive breakout, traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
  • The middle of the range can act as a magnet and area of balance.

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly - Middle of Trading Range
  • This week formed a bull doji, closing in its upper half with a prominent tail below and a small tail above.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate strong follow-through selling below the 20-week EMA over the next few weeks or whether the move would remain weak and sideways, closing with long lower tails or bull bodies.
  • Bulls view the recent move as a pullback forming a double bottom bull flag (April 30 and May 21).
  • They hope the move remains weak, with overlapping candlesticks and prominent lower tails.
  • Bulls want a second leg sideways to up to retest the trading range high.
  • They want the 20-week EMA or the March 23 high to act as support.
  • If the market trades lower, bulls want the lower third of the trading range to provide support.
  • Bulls need to create follow-through buying above the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of testing the top of the trading range.
  • Bears want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal (April 17) and a head and shoulders top (September 17, January 27, and April 17).
  • Bears want a retest and breakout below the trading range low.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want the May 6 or April 17 highs to act as resistance, forming a double top bear flag.
  • They want any move higher to remain weak and sideways, with poor follow-through, forming long upper tails and bear bodies.
  • Bears need to create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of testing the trading range low.
  • The market continues to trade around the middle of the trading range, near the 20-week EMA.
  • The middle of the range is an area of balance and often acts as a magnet.
  • Traders will watch whether bears can generate strong follow-through selling below the 20-week EMA over the next few weeks or whether the move remains weak and sideways, closing with long lower tails or bull bodies.
  • The longer the pullback remains sideways and weak, the higher the odds of another leg up to test near the April 17 high in the weeks ahead.
  • Price remains within the 51-week trading range. Until there is a clear breakout with strong follow-through, traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) — buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.

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