Nasdaq 100 February 2025 Is Big Outside Down Doji Bear Bar

Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures February 2025 is big outside down doji bear bar – it went above the bad buy signal bar of last month, reversed, went below the low of last month and closed above the low of last month.

It is also the lowest close of the year, closing below the prior lower close – the first week of January. Surprisingly, I did not find a headline at the end of Friday that said that the market is down for the year 😊 .

The week is a volatile week. It is a big bear bar with a prominent tail below. Around mid-day Friday, the bar was at its low and the last two trading hours added the prominent tail. Friday was the last trading day of the week and the month, so Friday was expected to determine the shape of both.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Monthly NASDAQ chart

• The February month bar is a bad sell signal bar – a big outside down doji bear bar with prominent tails.
• Last month’s report said how both bears and bulls are not getting good entry/follow-through bars.
• This month continued that behavior. Bears were able to prevent a bull entry bar to last month’s buy signal bar.
• At the same time, the outside down bear bar has a prominent tail below so its likely there are more buyers below than sellers.
• This month is like the big doji bear bar from July 2024. It is likely the market will trigger the low of this month, to see where buyers come in.
• What are some of the possible targets for the next few months –
  • for the bears –
    • low of the October month – The December monthly report had mentioned that the Q4 quarterly bar was a bad sell signal bar, and its low could likely be triggered.
    • monthly exponential moving average (EMA).
  • for the bulls –
    • Close of Last month’s buy signal bar
    • Upper 1/3 of upper tail of this month
    • All time high above high of December

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

• The week is a big bear bar with a prominent tail below.
• It is the first good pair of bear bars since July 2024, and the first close below the weekly EMA since August of last year. That shows how strong the bulls have been.
• So is next week likely to be a good bear follow-through bar? It is less likely.
• Bears want to close the open bull body gap with week of 8-19-2024. Given we are in a trading range, that is likely to happen.
• If bears had closed on a low this week, it could have happened next week.
• The gap is also around the October low, another reason it will be a magnet.
• So far market has been in a trading range above the weekly EMA. Bears want to break strongly below the weekly EMA to transition the market to a trading range between the weekly and monthly EMA (similar to what has happened on the daily chart where the market has been in a trading range around the daily and weekly EMA since December)
• Bulls want to keep the body gap open and start a bull leg up again. They want to avoid a 3^rd consecutive bear bar next week.
• Either way, the move down is strong enough that there will likely be a 2^nd leg down.

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