Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a big outside up bull trend bar with all-time high close. Given the sideways move for the past few weeks, it is a surprise bar.
The daily chart started with a big bull bar on Monday, breaking out of the daily exponential moving average (EMA), followed by a strong follow-through bar on Tuesday, and had bull bars for the rest of the week, although smaller in size.
The monthly bar is a good bull follow-through bar to last month. Monday is the last day of the month, and bears will likely not be able to do enough to change the shape of the monthly bar.
Prior reports have said it was less likely that June would be a good bull bar, given the big size of the quarterly bar as of May. The market is doing the less likely thing, which means there will likely be a second leg up.
Prior reports have also said that next quarter is less likely to break out above the current quarter for the same reason. What this means is that the next couple of months should be sideways to down.
The monthly report next week will go into more detail about possible scenarios.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a big bull trend bar with a new all-time high close.
- The market went below last week’s low and then reversed up strongly.
- Last week’s report had said that bears had a good risk-reward selling around the high of the past few weeks, and putting a stop above the February or December high.
- Well, the market proved that wrong and has already gone above the February high and is very close to the December high.
- Since this is a surprise bar, there should be at least a small second leg up.
- Since big bars usually have bad follow-through, next week is less likely to be a strong follow-through bull bar.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- The daily chart started the week with a bull trend bar from below the EMA, breaking out of the EMA and keeping the bull body gap from May open.
- Tuesday is a good follow-through bull bar. Every day of the week is a bull bar, although a couple of the days are small bars with tails.
- The market also made the first of the measured move targets shown from May.
- The breakout of the EMA and good follow-through on Monday and Tuesday themselves present a measured move bull target, also shown on the chart.
- It is very close to the 2nd measured move target shown from previous reports.
- Note, the monthly chart also presents the same bull scenario – May is a breakout of the monthly EMA, and June will likely be a good follow-through bar, so a bull target will be the measured move of the bull bodies of May and June, but more on this in next week’s monthly report.
- One of the challenges is that the analysis of the daily charts somewhat conflicts with the analysis of the higher timeframe – I have said above that it is not likely for next quarter to break above the current quarter, yet the daily chart analysis shows targets above.
- Well, one way it’s possible to meet both is that the market meets the targets above early in the next quarter and then goes sideways to down.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
