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Big Monthly Emini Candlestick

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Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The market formed a big monthly Emini candlestick closing near its high in November. The bulls want the market to continue in a broad bull channel for months. The bears see October as a possible 1 bar final flag of the move and the big bull bar in November as part of a developing buy climax.

S&P500 Emini futures

The Monthly Emini chart

Emini Monthly - Wedge, Embedded Wedge, Big Bull Bar, Big Monthly Emini Candlestick
  • The November monthly Emini candlestick was a big bull bar closing near high.
  • Last month, we said the market remains Always In Long. Traders would see if the bears could create a strong follow-through bear bar (an entry bar) in November, or if the market would trade slightly lower but stall and close with a long tail or a bull body instead (like Aug and Sept).
  • The bulls made a new all-time high in November.
  • They got another leg up, completing the wedge pattern (Mar 21, Jul 16 and Nov 29) and an embedded wedge (Aug 30, Oct 17, and Nov 29).
  • They want the market to continue in a broad bull channel for months.
  • If there is a pullback, the bulls want it to be sideways and shallow (filled with weak bear bars, bull bars, doji(s) and overlapping candlesticks) and form a higher low or a double bottom bull flag with the September 6 or August 5 lows.
  • The bears want a reversal from a wedge (Mar 21, Jul 16 and Nov 29) and an embedded wedge (Aug 30, Oct 17, and Nov 29).
  • They see October as a possible 1 bar final flag of the move and the big bull bar in November as part of a developing buy climax.
  • The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not yet been able to create bear bars with follow-through selling (since Oct 2023).
  • They must create bear bars with follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
  • Since November candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for December.
  • Because the candlestick closed near its high, the market may gap up on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts on Monday. Small gaps usually close early.
  • For now, the market remains Always In Long.
  • Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
  • The move up since October 2023 has lasted a long time and is slightly climactic.
  • While the risk of a pullback increases, the bears need to do more to show that they are back in control.
  • Until they can do that, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying in December.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

Emini Weekly - Retest High, Strong FT Buying or Stall
  • This week’s Emini candlestick was a small bull bar closing near its high.
  • Last week, we said the market may still trade a little higher to test the November 11 high. Traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the November 11 high area followed by profit-taking activity.
  • The market traded higher to test the November 11 high area and closed in new all-time high territory.
  • The bulls got another leg up, completing the wedge pattern (Mar 21, Jul 16, and Nov 29) and the embedded wedge (Aug 30, Oct 17, and Nov 29).
  • They see the market as being in a broad bull channel and want the market to continue sideways to up for many months.
  • If there is a pullback, they want the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears want a reversal from a large wedge (Mar 21, Jul 16, and Nov 29) and an embedded wedge (Aug 30, Oct 17, and Nov 29).
  • They see this week as a retest of the prior extreme high (Nov 11) and want a reversal from a double top (Nov 11 and Nov 29).
  • They hope that the recent sideways candlesticks (end of Sept to early Nov) will be the final flag of the move.
  • They see the big bull bar (Nov 11) appearing late in a trend as a possible buy climax.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a failed breakout followed by the start of a couple of weeks of sideways to down pullback.
  • They need to create a couple of consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show that they are back in control.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a small bull bar closing near its high, it can be a buy signal bar for next week.
  • The market may gap up next week on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Small gaps usually close early.
  • For now, the market may still trade at least a little higher.
  • The recent candlesticks have overlapping ranges with smaller bodies. If this continues to be the case, we may be entering into a more two-sided trading phase (trading range).
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar breaking into a new all-time high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall followed by some profit-taking activity?
  • The move up since October 2023 while strong, has lasted a long time and is slightly climactic. The odds of a deeper pullback are increasing.
  • However, the bears need to do more to show that they are at least temporarily back in control. They have yet to do so.

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