Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 8:29 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
Bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways range, with low volatility and minimal directional conviction. This consolidation phase is likely to persist until trading volume picks up again, most probably during January. The market is now poised for a decisive move: either a downside test toward the $75,000 level (likely acting as strong support) or an upside breakout targeting $100,000. Either scenario will offer clear, trading opportunities, especially on the daily timeframe and below.
Transcript
Hi everyone, welcome back to this week’s Bitcoin price action analysis. My name is Josep Capo, and I’m a Price Action Trader and an author for the Brooks Trading Course website. Thank you for joining us as we take a detailed look at Bitcoin on both the weekly and daily charts.
Before we dive into the charts, I want to mention that from now on, I’ll be incorporating an indicator that I use every single day in my own trading operations. It’s a very simple visual tool—nothing extraordinary—but it helps me quickly identify momentum. I can spot these moves myself without any indicator, but during live trading, there are moments when your focus naturally dips, and this tool acts as a reliable heads-up to snap me back into full concentration.
All signals from this indicator are completely context-dependent. If we ever launch a live trading room, you’ll see this indicator in action, particularly on lower timeframes, where it obviously triggers more frequently. I’ll explain more about it when the time comes.
Let’s start with the weekly chart.
This week so far, and the prior week, we’ve seen tight bars, which is a clear sign of compression in price action. As traders, we love compression because it’s essentially a breakout mode pattern. On lower timeframes, it often precedes a significant move, so this tight action tells us the market is coiling up and preparing for something bigger.
Overall, the market remains always-in short and is currently trading inside a tight bear channel within the broader market cycle. However, the price has already traded through this area in the past and was heavily bought at these levels. That means this tight bear channel is more likely to be just one leg within a broader trading range market cycle, rather than the start of a sustained bear trend.
Looking closely, this tight bear channel doesn’t look particularly strong. The bars lack uniformity in size, there are numerous tails, and only one bear bar shows a body larger than 50%. Overall, it appears more exhaustive than convincingly bearish. While a tight bear channel should provide bearish inertia, we’re now approaching a key support area where traders become reluctant to sell aggressively. Those sellers who wisely shorted higher up are likely viewing this level as an opportunity to take profits, reduce positions, or even close their shorts entirely.
When Bitcoin was declining sharply toward $80,000, I pointed out that it made sense to construct a near forty-five-day-to-expiration bull put spread. The reasoning was straightforward: price would either find support and move sideways, or transition directly into sideways-to-upward action. As traders, we always prioritize risk first, so the spread was designed to limit downside exposure in case of a deeper move lower. In my view, it represented a high-probability setup with a positive trader’s equation, and I still see it that way today.
This leads me to conclude that even if we see another leg down—and that remains possible given the bear breakout, the failed bull reversal attempts, and the bulls’ inability to produce two consecutive strong bull bars or close above prior highs—the downside should remain limited. Selling below last week’s low created a Low 2 setup with tight risk above the weekly bar and potential for at least 2R to the downside. This week, the setup triggered and still offers a positive trader’s equation, though with lower probability.
So far this week, follow-through has been weak—price is currently above last week’s low and above the weekly midpoint, which is a sign that bulls stepped in to buy during the decline. Still, the bear setup is there. A sizable move lower would likely be bought again, reinforcing my view that we won’t see substantially lower prices from here.
A Low 2 setup in the bottom third of a trading range is also a buy signal. I believe we are currently in the lower third of a trading range. If you were to buy here, you would need a wide stop—possibly below $50,000—so you’d have to be able to scale in, especially if the price drops to $75,000. Personally, instead of buying now, I prefer the options play. If I had to bet on a directional move, I would be conservative and wait for a reversal up from the $75,000 area rather than buying at current levels.
One reason I sometimes prefer options over directional trades is that I can open the position now and stay in the market. With the options structure, I have a clear roadmap: staying above $75,000 and testing $100,000. If I were to go purely directional, I would either scale in with many small positions or wait for price to reach support and look for a reversal there. Both approaches are valid, but I have other preferences that make me feel more comfortable and you also should be aware that price action trading can be done using different approaches.
I’m not certain whether we’ll test the 365-day moving average this year or in the first quarter of 2026, but remember we’re operating inside a trading range. In trading ranges, price naturally gravitates toward the mean, and the 365-day moving average as well as the one-hundred-thousand-dollar big round number serve as an excellent proxy for that mean within the current macro trading range market cycle.
Before we move to the daily chart, I want to mention again the strong interest many of you have shown in a Bitcoin trading room. We’ve received very positive feedback every time we’ve raised the idea, and we’ll soon make a decision. If you have any suggestions, please share them in the comments—we genuinely want to hear from you. Your input will help us create something truly valuable.
As many of you know, we’re posting two to three videos per week analyzing the end-of-day intraday Bitcoin chart—either using the 24-hour format on a 15-minute timeframe or the U.S. session format on a 5-minute timeframe. You can find them on the Brooks Trading Course Blog, typically posted on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Just a heads-up: the end-of-day videos will be paused until January 5th, but the weekly reports will continue, with a special extended weekly report coming on January 3rd. I expect to cover more interesting Bitcoin insights beyond just price action, so if you don’t want to miss it, make sure to subscribe and hit the bell so you get notified when it goes live.
Now, let’s move to the daily chart.
This week, price traded sideways to down until it formed a wedge bottom. We’ve been talking about a potential breakdown of the flag from the previous week, but given the weakness, I believe instead of breaking down, we’re simply inside a higher trading range, bounded by the double or triple top above and the double bottom below.
Small trading ranges often deliver decent breakouts and reach obvious measured move targets. For the bulls, they want a measured move up toward the levels where *longs -video says “shorts”- are trapped—particularly the breakout point and the major lower high. On the way up, there’s the one-hundred-thousand-dollar magnet which is the weekly target. For the bears, they want a measured move down toward $75,000, which is also a magnet as it’s the major breakout point on the monthly chart.
Both measured moves make sense, so traders will place buy orders at the double-top high and sell orders at the double-bottom low.
Keep in mind that the next week and the last days of the current month are usually flat, and we don’t expect price to move much higher or lower. Of course, in the markets, you always have to be ready for anything.
As I’ve said before, I’ll return with end-of-day videos in January, but I’ll see you next Sunday with the weekly report—the last one of 2025. Regarding trading over the holidays, Al Brooks used to say that during Christmas, he trades more to practice: Patience and Discipline. Even if the market doesn’t deliver many signals, there’s no excuse not to improve your trading skills. That said, family always comes first, so I wish you a wonderful time with your loved ones during these beautiful days and weeks ahead.
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