Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 6:31 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
November 2025 has been a deeply negative month for Bitcoin, closing with a clear bear breakout bar on the higher timeframes. Price is now sitting exactly at the breakeven level for anyone (specially many institutions) who has been dollar-cost averaging since the ETF launch in early 2024. This is a critical psychological line in the sand: falling significantly below it would trigger widespread capitulation. Heavy institutional influence should act as a stabilizing force, making a sharp, sustained bear trend unlikely from here.
Transcript
Hi everyone, welcome to this week’s video analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the monthly and weekly charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course website.
Let’s dive straight into the Bitcoin charts today, starting with the big-picture monthly timeframe on IBIT – the iShares Bitcoin ETF. I love pulling this one up because it really captures the consensus thinking of U.S. investors who jumped in after the SEC green-lit these spot ETFs at the start of 2024. For me, that approval was a genuine watershed moment – there’s a clear before and after in Bitcoin’s history.
Right now, on the monthly chart, we’ve completed a wedge-top pattern. Once a wedge top finishes, the typical sequence is a couple of sideways-to-down legs that target the area of the prior higher lows, and only after that do we shift into what Al Brooks calls “breakout mode” territory again.
If you look carefully, there’s a confirmed gap between the high of the first bull leg and the low of the second leg – that gap got sealed when the third leg finally punched above the second-leg high. Gaps like this matter because they represent imbalances, and when the Price comes back there is often a strong Support. Fast-forward 22 months since the ETF launch, and this month we have tested the 22-month moving average for the first time. Translation: for anyone who has been religiously dollar-cost averaging since day one, this level right here is their breakeven point.
So here’s the psychology part to really think about. If price falls far below this 22-month average, the majority of these participants are going to panic-sell or capitulate. Why? Simple – fear of losing everything kicks in hard once you’re deep in the red. The weak bulls who chased the all-time high are always the first to head for the exits, and that creates liquidation. A smaller group will try to average down and buy the dip, but only as long as they still have cash left and the bullish story hasn’t completely died in their minds.
Bottom line: for Bitcoin to prove it still has real bull potential over the next year, it needs a strong reversal upward either right from here or from the area of that third-leg low. If it just keeps grinding lower, sure, traders will get play, but longer-term investors will mostly freeze in paralysis. Once we’re down 50 to 80 percent from the all-time high, new buying dries up until we hit extreme fear capitulation. That usually means months, sometimes more than a year, of consolidation without retesting the old highs.
Q3 2025 closed about 25 percent above where we are right now. If December manages to close around this 22-month average or higher, I’d expect Q1 2026 to start bullish. A lot of big funds rebalance at quarter-end, and a negative prior quarter often triggers net buying into the next one. The fact that inflows now come primarily from institutions rather than just retail adds real stability during these shaky moments.
My base case is sideways for several months – maybe half a year. We could retest that third-leg low or simply chop between roughly $50–$60 on IBIT (which translates to about $90000–$110000 on spot). That open gap should hold as support, we’ll probably print another leg sideways-to-down, and then I expect December (or the next couple of months) to close higher than November, followed by a test of these November lows sometime in Q1 2026.
Before we flip to the weekly chart, a heartfelt thank you for watching the end-of-day Bitcoin updates. We post fresh video reports every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday on the Brooks Trading Course blog – link in the description. We’re also gauging interest in a dedicated Bitcoin trading room built specifically for price-action beginners who want to focus only on crypto. If that sounds useful, drop a comment here or on the blog – your feedback genuinely helps shape what we build next.
All right, let’s zoom in to the weekly chart – still on IBIT ETF. The weekly timeframe is currently in a bear breakout market cycle, but importantly, that bear breakout is happening inside a prior trading range. That tells me this might just be one leg inside a bigger range rather than the start of a full-blown spike-and-channel bear trend.
The bear move started weak and has gained strength recently. The last two weeks printed strong bear breakout bars, so at minimum we should see a small additional leg sideways-to-down. Last week trapped bears who sold the close at $47.97, and this week formed a bull breakout bar that’s actually an inside bar relative to last week. Inside-bar breakouts against the prevailing direction have a high failure rate, and since this is the very first bull bar of the entire bear leg down, plenty of traders simply sold the close this week.
Bears still have measured-move room lower, so selling this week’s bull close or selling above this week’s high in the coming week for a scalp down, remains a positive-expectancy strategy in my book. If we had reversed from major support I’d be more cautious, but since we haven’t hit the bear targets yet, I expect at least one more brief push lower.
That said, if next week delivers another strong bull breakout bar with real follow-through, the odds of making new lows drop. Bulls who bought last week’s close should make money over the next month if they can sit tight. As I mentioned, I still see that April low as massive support, and overall I expect the market to drift sideways-to-up from here – great for volatility sellers in the options market.
For directional buyers, I’d consider buying on a test of last week’s close, but you absolutely must be willing to scale in lower if it keeps dropping, as long as it holds above that major lower support. If your trade-management rules don’t allow scaling in, the math simply isn’t in your favor buying there.
So, in summary, on the weekly: we have reasonable two-sided trading. Sellers above current levels and buyers below, but I think it’s more likely we close below this week’s high than above it.
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