Trading Update: Monday August 18, 2025
E-mini end of day video review
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S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini formed a bear bar following Thursday’s high 1 buy signal bar. The risk is getting big for the bulls, and that increased the odds of sellers above Thursday’s high.
- The Bears are hopeful that Friday is a strong enough reversal bar that it’ll lead to a 2nd leg down and a test of the July high. The Bulls want to prevent the Bears from getting a Strong bear bar closing on its low today.
- Today will probably fail to become a strong bear trend day and will instead be a disappointment bar for the Bears. Even if today forms a bull bar, it’ll likely be a weak high 1 buy signal bar, which will lead to sellers above its high.
- As I mentioned above, the risk is big for the Bulls, and that increases the odds of the market getting a pullback in testing closer to the moving average, which is near the mid-point of the August rally.
- The bears are hopeful that the market will form a higher high, a major trend reversal. However, as I’ve said for the past couple of days, the rally up from the August low is tight, and that lowers the probability of the bears getting a major reversal down.
- If the bears do get a reversal down from the current high, it will likely have to form a credible lower high before the bears can get a major trend reversal. While the odds favor a pullback, the risk of the Bears missing a strong downside move is low.
- If the bears are going to get a successful major trend reversal. They will likely have many opportunities to sell lower highs. This means that the market will likely have to go sideways for several bars first.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today opened with little to no gap during the U.S. session. The market has been in a tight trading range for the first 18 bars of the day. This is a warning that today will likely have a lot of trading range price action.
- Because of all the overlap today, it’s better to expect that most will lead to minor reversals and ultimately fail and reverse into the opposite direction.
- If today is going to form a trend day up or down. There will be plenty of time to enter once the market is clearly breaking out.
- It’s easy to get frustrated by an open like today and try to force trades, betting that this one bar is going to lead to the breakout. However, the market can go sideways for a long time before it breaks out.
- Today, we’ll probably get a measured move up or down based on the opening range. At the moment, the odds slightly favor a measured move up due to the buying pressure and higher time frame context.
- Overall, the market is in a trading range, and therefore, traders should expect that most breakouts will fail to go far.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
