Trading Update: Friday September 26, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini gapped down yesterday, testing the daily moving average and testing near the September 17th low.
- While the selling over the past three days has been good for the bears. It’s still inside a tight bull channel, which increases the odds of the market going sideways.
- Yesterday formed a high one buy, but it’s a weak doji buy signal bar. This increases the odds of sellers above the bar willing to scale in higher.
- Yesterday’s bar is at the moving average; it lowers the probability for the bears selling above its high because the bar is at support, the moving average.
- Because the rally up to Monday’s high (September 22nd) is in a tight bull channel, there’s a 30% chance that Tuesday will lead to a major reversal. This means that the sell-off from Tuesday’s high is more likely to experience a deep pullback and move sideways than break significantly below the moving average.
- There is an increased risk that the market will have to test back to Monday’s close over the next several bars.
- Overall, the daily chart is getting climactic, and the market is approaching resistance. It is likely to have to go sideways for more bars before it can pull back.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The E-mini gapped up on the open and rallied up to bar 7 before going outside down.
- One was a relatively large bar for the bulls and increased the risk of sellers somewhere above the bar.
- Bears did a good job on bars 7 and 8, getting a reversal down. However, because of the opening rally, the odds favored buyers below the bar 1 low, and the market went sideways.
- As of Bar 33, the day was clearly a trading range day. This increased the risk that the market would rally up to the bar 1 close, and possibly the bar 6 low, the breakout point for the Bears. This was an area where the bulls got trapped.
- Currently, the market is at bar 42 and is forming consecutive buy climaxes at resistance, the midpoint of bar 7.
- So far, the day has been a training range day. This increases the odds that the market will go sideways around the bar 42 close and possibly reverse back down, testing the bar 25 breakout point high.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
