Trading Update: Monday May 5, 2025
Emini end of day video review
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S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a bull bar closing on its high last Friday. The daily chart is Always In Long, and the odds favor a second leg up, and therefore probably buyers below.
- The Bulls want a measured move based on the April trading range, and then we want to test up to the 6000 round number.
- Because the weekly chart formed consecutive bull bars closing near their highs, the odds favor buyers below, and a second leg up.
- The current rally is above the midpoint of the sell-off, down to the April low period. This is an area of resistance, and bears will begin to sell and scale into shorts, trying to create a second leg down.
- While the reversal up is good for the bulls, it’s following a fairly strong reversal down, increasing the risk that the market enters a trading range on the daily chart.
- The current rally from the April low is good for the bulls. There’s a lot of overlap. And if the market continues to go sideways and the bears develop selling pressure, that will increase the odds that we get a reversal down.
- For the Bears to get a reversal down, they must do more than they’ve done right here. They need to get a bear bar or a series of bear bars closing on their lows. That means the odds favor sideways to up for at least the next several bars.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The market opened, forming a large gap down. This increases the odds of a trading range open and the first reversal up failing and leading to a second leg down.
- The first 10 bars of the day have had a lot of trading range price action.
- The bulls managed to rally up to the moving average; however, now we’re forming many bear bars closing on their lows right at the moving average.
- With bar 11 being a bear bar closing on its low, bears will begin to sell below the bar, taking a chance that we get a swing below the low of the day.
- The bulls need to get close above the moving average to demonstrate control over the market.
- The problem for the Bears is that the market is going sideways at last Friday’s low, and that is likely to be an area of support.
- This means that there’s not a lot of urgency by the bears, and increases the risk that the market gets a reversal up and a bull breakout of the first 10 bars of the day.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from last Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
