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Emini Likely to Stall at Daily Moving Average

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Trading Update: Tuesday March 25, 2025

Emini end of day video review

Emini EOD Review Joseph Imbornone

Follow Joseph’s YouTube channel for more Al Brooks price action analysis.

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini is at the moving average on the daily chart, which is a likely area of resistance. There is an increased risk that the market will stall at the moving average for a couple of bars.  
  • The bears are hopeful that the moving average will attract selling pressure and lead to a deep pullback after the bull rally.
  •  The buying pressure is strong, which increases the odds of another leg up. This means that there are probably buyers on the first reversal down.
  • The market is so close to the November 4th and January 13th lows that it may have to reach them before the bears can get an attempt at a reversal down.
  • Traders will pay close attention to today’s bar. The bulls will attempt to establish another strong bull trend bar today, which would increase the odds of higher prices.
  • The bears will try to halt the buying pressure. If they can cause the market to go sideways for enough bars, that would increase the odds of a reversal downward.
  • The bulls see a bull breakout of the bear flag (March 13th low and March 19th high). They are hopeful that the bull breakout of the bear flag will lead to a measured move up to just below the 6,000 round number.
  • Overall, the bulls have had a strong rally over the past two days. The odds favor a 2nd leg up.  The problem the bulls face is that the rally is at the moving average, which serves as resistance. This increases the risk that the bulls will have to hold through a pullback. Some traders will wait to see how the reversal attempt unfolds. If it is weak, they will buy it, betting on higher prices. If it is strong, the bulls may exit below and wait.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a small gap up that closed on bar two. The open has sold off and rallied during the first 10 bars and is currently at the open of the day.
  • The bulls are hopeful that the reversal up on bar 8 is an opening reversal that will lead to another bull trend day on the daily chart.
  • The bears want the opposite and for today to close at or below the open for the day. This would indicate hesitation at the daily moving average and increase the risk of one to two bars sideways to down on the daily chart.
  • The rally up to bar 11 is good for the bulls and increases the risk of a 2nd leg up.
  • It will be higher probability for the bulls to wait for a clear breakout with follow-through above bar 1.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trend from Open and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Micro Double Bottom and Then Parabolic Wedge Top

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily Pullback to Moving Average
  • The EURUSD is currently getting a pullback to the daily moving average and the March 6th low.
  • The bears have done a good job with the recent 5-bar bear microchannel. However, the bear bodies are getting smaller, which is a sign that the momentum is slowing down.
  • The bulls need a strong reversal up to undo the 5-bar bear microchannel. At a minimum, the bulls need a bull reversal bar closing on its high. Without it, the odds favor sellers over buyers.
  • The three-bar breakout to the March 5th high is strong, which increases the odds of the bulls getting some measured move up.
  • The bears are hopeful that the selloff from the March 18th high is strong enough to make any reversal up become a trading range, and not a bull trend.
  • Overall, the odds favor a bounce and buyers at the moving average. The bulls need to reverse the March 18th selloff and achieve a strong reversal upward. Without a strong reversal up, the bears will look to sell above, which would lead to a lower high below the March 18th low.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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