Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini was not for the faint of heart as of late. After screaming to an all time high above $5600, Thursday’s bar closed bearish. On Friday, gold experienced a dramatic, rapid correction, with prices falling more than 8% to below $5,000, marking one of the most severe single-day declines in 13 years. The gold market is not just in a bull trend; it is in a state of high-momentum price discovery.
Parabolic exhaustion? The rapid acceleration over the last few days has all the characteristics of a climax bar. A parabolic ascent often leads to a fast, deep correction rather than a slow topping pattern, as observed on Friday. The sharp correction at the end of the week was driven by profit-taking, renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, and the nomination of a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair.
Honorable mention: Silver hit an all-time high above $120 per ounce on Thursday, before crashing 12% to 20% on Friday.
Gold GC-mini futures
The Monthly Gold chart
- The single biggest bar in GC monthly chart history.
- Gold dropped over 10% from the highs.
- 29 of the past 33 bars have been bullish.
- The past 7 bars in a row have been bullish.
- Bull bar closed below its 50% mark, still well above the previous month’s bar.
- The dramatic upper tail is a poor buy signal.
- Despite a moonshot to all time highs, January finished as a failed breakout.
- Bears want to continue to exploit the exhaustion bar to the downside.
- Bears want to follow through with next week’s bar.
The Weekly Gold chart
- The single biggest weekly bar in GC history.
- Weekly bar dwarfs previous major historical moves, including those seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 pandemic.
- A record-setting, one-day gain early in the week.
- High volume panic buying and selling.
- Only the 2nd bear bar in the past 8 weeks.
- Tail beneath the bar body is not a strong sell signal.
- Bears want follow through with next week’s bar.
- Bears want to test down to the previous breakout pivot near $4550, beyond that the moving average.
- Bulls want to continue treating all pullbacks with aggressive buying, keeping a gap between candles and the moving average.
- Bulls want to prevent a lower low break of structure near $4300.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
