Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini monthly chart posted its third consecutive bear bar, throwing the market into always-in-short. However, the past 2 bear bars are weak doji bars. Doji bars are trading range bars which can be clearly viewed on lower time frame charts. We have not seen 3 consecutive monthly bear bars since May – July 2024. Price has spent the majority of the past 8 months in the 4400 – 4800 area.
The weekly market shows a bear channel. Weekly bulls were waiting to buy at the 4400 round number, driving the price back to the high of the bear channel. Weekly Bulls are eager to close above the moving average. Bears want to use the moving average to sell at a better price. This is also the general area for bears to get a 50% pull back set up. This set up works by bulls being able to add to their positions at the lows, thus getting out at break even when it pulls back up 50%, Bears then take advantage of bulls selling out of their positions, shorting that momentum for another leg down and a potential measured move. 3967.5 is the measured move bear target for this scenario. The confluence of the moving average and the 50% pull back area makes the bearish cause more probable.
Also worth noting… Many of the conditions that created the parabolic spike have not changed, though the gold market has dramatically shifted to a ranging market that is currently always in short.
The Monthly Gold chart
- Buyers waiting at the round number of 4400 caused a bounce up.
- 3 consecutive bear bars.
- Prominent tails beneath the past 4 bars, which show determined bulls.
- Price remains well above the moving average. We have seen moving averages on lower time frames get violated by the bears.
- Bears want to send price down to the moving average. Ideally closing consecutive bars beneath the moving average.
- The 3rd bear bar in a row puts the monthly chart always in short.
- The last 2 bars are bear doji bars. Doji bars are trading range bars.
- Price has spent the majority of the past 8 months in the 4400 – 4800 zone.
- Bulls want to maintain a large gap between price and the moving average.
- Bulls want to return price above 5000.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Market is in a bear channel.
- Large tails beneath many bars over the past several weeks. A sign of determined bulls.
- 4 of the past 5 bars closed well under the moving average, including the past 3 weeks in a row.
- Between 4400 and 4900 there are 11 weeks of overlapping bars, classic trading range behavior.
- Bulls able to close a body above the open of last week’s bar.
- Bulls looking for follow through, ideally closing a bar above the moving average.
- Savvy bears want to sell any pullbacks that are near the moving average.
- Bears want to maintain a large gap between price and the moving average.
- Outside-up bar. Bulls may be hesitant to buy above this type of bar.
- Bears want a 50% pullback set up. 3967.5 is the measured move target.
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