Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures
The market formed a strong Emini retest all-time high on the monthly chart. The bulls want a big leg up lasting many months. The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top.
S&P500 Emini futures
The Monthly Emini chart
- The June monthly Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high.
- Last month, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar which would increase the odds of retesting the all-time high, or if the follow-through buying would be disappointing instead.
- The bulls got a strong follow-through bull bar testing near the all-time high.
- They then got a breakout above the all-time high in early July.
- They want a big leg up lasting many months.
- They need to create follow-through buying above the December 6 high to increase the odds of a successful breakout.
- The bears see the current move as a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top.
- They want a failed breakout above the December 6 high.
- They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
- Since June was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for July.
- The odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
- Traders will see if the bulls can create a strong breakout above the December 6 high.
- Or will the market trade higher, but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?
- For now, the buying pressure is stronger (strong consecutive bull bars) in the last 2 months.
The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart
- This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing in new all-time high territory.
- Last week, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout above, or if the market would trade slightly higher, but stall around the December 6 high area instead.
- The bulls got a retest and breakout above the December 6 high.
- They want a resumption of the trend.
- They want another strong leg up from a double bottom bull flag (May 23 and Jun 23).
- They want a Leg 1 = Leg 2 move which will take the market to the 6800 area (leg 1 being the Apr 21 low to the May 19 high).
- They must create a strong breakout above the all-time high (Dec 6) with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- The bears see the current move as a buy vacuum retest of the prior trend’s extreme high (Dec 6).
- They want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal and a double top (Dec 6).
- They want a failed breakout above the prior all-time high.
- They must create strong consecutive bear bars to show they are back in control. So far, they haven’t been able to do so since the April low.
- Since this week’s candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high, it can be a buy signal bar for next week.
- The market could still trade at least a little higher.
- The market is Always In Long.
- The buying pressure since the April 7 low has been stronger (strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs) than the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with limited follow-through selling).
- The recent pullbacks (May 23 and June 23) were weak and mostly sideways which increased the odds of another leg up. The move is currently underway.
- Traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying above the December 6 high.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall in the weeks ahead instead?
- For now, the market remains in the sideways to up phase.
Trading room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
