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Is the 60-70% chance of a measured move of breakout bars, still valid in the first hour of the market's open since it the most volatile part of the day and has a 50% chance of reversing. So does the 50% chance of reversal at the open negate the 60-70% chance of the measured move of a breakout early in the day.
Mods, is there a way you guys can ask and get the answer from Mr.Al Brooks?
Hey, I think the chances gets more than 50% the later the BO happens on the open.
In you question you are saying two things that are correct in price action.
1) 60% chance for MM when BO happens.
2) 50% that the first move of the open will reverse.
When explaining the open 18 bar range Al says different probability for the close of each bar.
The low or the high of the first bar has a 20% chance of remaining the low or the high when its formed, When the 1st 30min is done the is a 50% chance that the market made its high or low for the day, After the first hour there is 70% chance that the market made its high or low of the day.
Along with the 2 points that you said add my Al's explanation of the probability on the open as well. and try to Find a way that's comfortable for you to trade the 1st 90min of the open.
Brad says that he does not trade the first hour and also recommends it to beginners as well. May be you could follow that.
