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In green area, AL said it is a complex 1st leg up, but I just see 3-BOs with 3-bad FTs, more like a bull leg in broad bear channel.
SO why would probably (60%) have a 2nd leg up? is this beacuse cup and handle pattern?
Patterns often fail. However, reading strength within the price is the next level of detail. First the bear selloff had 3 pushes and was fairly tight, so a retest is expected. If you review the bull retracement, you will see that although there are 3 pushes, there is very little overlap between the bull breakouts, and the size of the bull bars are significant enough in size. This leads to a few aspects, the first is that the bears are expected to attempt to retest the lows. However, the counterbalance is that at the end of the green box, enough bull counterplay has occurred such that the bulls are also expected to have a 2nd leg.
These two facts will co-exist as the prices then play out what happens next. The next two bear bars show significant tails on the lower side as the bull breakout bar is tested with very little if any overlap. This is then followed by a very strong reasserting bull bar directly into where the bears originally sold off. It is a testing point and over the next 9 doji bars, both sides are fighting it out, and the probability is 52-48 (estimate) with emphasis for the bulls because the most recent PA in time has shown a slight favor to the bulls.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Thank you, Eric. It is very helpful! 🤩
