[Resolvido] Loosing streak

There is a MASSIVE difference with analyzing what the market DID and trading it live. That's why even Al won't do it. Too hard on the ego. I can pretty much guarantee you'll NEVER see an actual live video of Al trading. Just post production ones. (So excited for those though!!!)

Did you every checkout the live webinar or at least recordings of real-time analysis done by Al?

He clearly tells exactly what the bears and bulls are doing, before the fact, and when the market shifts always-in direction. Al has losing trades too, doesn't hide it the few times when he discloses his entries.

Al is one of the most humble and low ego teachers you can find. Just my "respectful" point of view. 😋 

Al's ego is bigger than this planet

Would just like to point out, if his ego was really as big as you say it is, I don't think he would take out the time to respond to almost all the queries he gets on his blog. He would not bother to diligently post the EOD reports for the benefit of the learners. There is a difference between confidence and ego.

When asking what to do DON'T SHOW THEM WHAT HAPPENED!!!!! SHOW THEM WHAT YOU SAW WHEN YOU TOOK THE TRADE. THEN ASK THEM WHAT THEY WOULD DO RIGHT THERE!!!

I would BET MY LIFE their advice would differ from AFTER they seen what happened VS in real time.

There is a MASSIVE difference with analyzing what the market DID and trading it live.

It does not really matter if traders read the PA correctly or not on the first glance. We are not here to learn if traders actually make mistakes or not. We are here to learn the correct way to trade. What difference would it make if the correct readings are in hindsight or not? All that matters is, whether we learn from these experiences and can apply it real-time. I don't know about you, but I have been diligently putting in the hours for the past 2 months and I am seeing the results.

Sorry for quipping into a forum post that the OP has already marked as resolved, but I could not really accept the fact that you were talking about my teacher in way that is not acceptable to me.

post your trading plan. Then we can discern your problem. If you  dont have one, that is the problem.

What Greame very kindly offered to help you with, that itself seems to be the root cause of your downfall. I don't know how much of the course you have covered, but there are people here who go through the course maybe 2-3 times before they actively start trading.

Al, throughout the course talks about risk management, trading small enough, trading the "I don't care size" and then scaling up from there as you become more and more consistent and profitable.

Moreover, it does not seem to me that you have finished the course even once. It is impossible to go through the "How to Trade Prerequisites"(video 30-36) and not think about risk management, trade management, trade probabilities and starting to think about trade plans.

Just my 2 cents.

P.S. - I am a beginner as well.

The trading plan is, in short, a description of the setups you take and how you manage them. But with 14 trades loosing streak you don't need one, because this should not been happening at all. Why don't you go back to the EMINI and compare your reading with Al's? This is the only way to evaluate your knowledge because by trading other instruments you have no feedback about what you are doing, so you never know, even if you win sometimes. 

We can help here, but without the theory firmly in your mind your questions will not go to the root of the problems and will keep walking in circles. I have seen many traders failing just because what they thought was true was simply wrong and they were not able to escape from there.

I know this suggestion is not popular and it is okay to try any other way as long as needed, but I think the 14 loses are telling you clearly that your current path is not good. So you can keep trying or you can go back to study using the MKT replay feature, reading as much EMINI charts as you can (with MKT replay you can do many sessions in one study day) and comparing with Al's. Then, if you have questions you can ask here or, better, if you are subscribed to the webinar, you can directly ask Al in the webinar and forum.

What do you think?

Ludopuig will be in a better position to comment.

To me, it seems like you are trading a 1 minute chart probably to minimize your risk. Understanding what you marked on the charts in your channel is incredibly difficult to me. I also did not see you mark the most obvious of patterns.

I personally track Bank Nifty, so I know how well PA works there. I follow the 5 minute chart. Can't really say any more as I could not understand your markings.

Suppose you always take low-probability trades (Reversal-trades). Let's take 30% as an average winning percentage. The above calculator screenshot shows that the probability of having a streak of 14 losers (in a row) is 0.6%. So 0.6% chance the 14 losers in a row are just a coincidence.

There's a very big chance (> 99 %) that the problem lies in your analyses. 

As was already suggested above: you probably need to study the course more thoroughly.

I've been studying the course for more than a year now. And I have only covered 45% of the Fundamental Course. So after that I still need to do the specific part. I watch a video completely, and then I watch it a second time, pausing the video constantly to take notes. It will easily take me 2 more years to have covered the course completely. And even then it's highly unsure I will be ready to trade profitably.

I do some trading, but with a very small amount. Just to add a practical aspect to the course for myself. 

The financial investment you make in the course is ridiculously small. The amount of time you need to invest in it, studying, is ridiculously high.

I can't even imagine the work that must have gone into creating this course.

And that, to me, is the ultimate motivation. If it's possible for someone to create the course, it should be possible for me to study and understand it completely.

At the risk of sounding cynical, after 14 consec losing trades, you might have a profitable system if you do the opposite.

But, seriously, if you want to construct a trading plan, the below investopedia link describes how to do it.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trading-plan.as

Some traders like a trading plan that has a rigid set of rules (decisions). Other traders prefer some of the rules to have discretion in the decision.

The trading plan is documented.

Yes, i know some profitable traders dont use a documented plan - and good for them.

It might sound corny but the discipline, focus and patience of the experienced members is truly worth learning from. Really appreciate the wisdom you share with us newbies. Thanks for all your efforts!

Hi Rishi,

I'm currently about 40% of the way through Al's video course after reading all three of his books and am finding it far more productive to not worry about win ratios and profit & loss at the moment.

Focusing on the current lessons I'm studying as I trade (I'm trading the ASX200 on a 5min chart everyday) has meant that I am learning much quicker, forming better habits and am a lot less stressed at the end of each day. Also I have found it really good to use the always in approach as training (I don't think I would always use this technique long term). I wait for a good buy/sell setup at the start of the day then reverse with the market until the end of the session, so I literally have an open position the whole session. This means I can't exit a trade early or place silly countertrend trades which was the cause for so many losses in the past.

I am nowhere near ready to trade significant volume and do not have a trading plan (I don't know enough yet to write one). I see it as far better use of my time to acquire knowledge and good habits at this stage and wonder if the same might be true for you. I have wasted too much time over the last 6 months focusing on win ratios and profit & loss, when my only concerns should have been to learn and practice.

I hope this offers some encouragement...

I hope this offers some encouragement...

Yes Brent, it really did ! Thank you 

Hi Rishi, I think all the key points have been addressed by the other traders, but do you mind sharing how many trading days did it take you to make those 14 trades?

If less than 3 or 4, you could be overtrading as well.

Best,

I wouldn't respond if I didnt think I could add something different. Of course take it all with a grain of salt.

First off if you do this long enough you will have loosing streaks. 14 may sound like alot (and it is) but NOT out of the realm of possibility.

I have the UTMOST respect for Al and the senior traders here but somethings don't always add up.

Al and some of the senior traders act as if they DON'T make mistakes or loose money ever and its patently false. And as far as I'm concerned this is my biggest issue as this is the cornerstone of crooks, which Al definitely NOT.

But Al and the seniors do give advice as if it was ALWAYS the trader that made a bad decision and that of course they never made or would have made.

This is a massive disservice as traders dig themselves into hole that comes from skewed advice.

When asking what to do DON'T SHOW THEM WHAT HAPPENED!!!!! SHOW THEM WHAT YOU SAW WHEN YOU TOOK THE TRADE. THEN ASK THEM WHAT THEY WOULD DO RIGHT THERE!!!

Al's ego is bigger than this planet, and probably rightfully so. And so are some of the traders here. Again no disrespect but you have to put it into context.

I would BET MY LIFE their advice would differ from AFTER they seen what happened VS in real time.

There is a MASSIVE difference with analyzing what the market DID and trading it live. That's why even Al won't do it. Too hard on the ego. I can pretty much guarantee you'll NEVER see an actual live video of Al trading. Just post production ones. (So excited for those though!!!)

So my friend be prepared, even if it never happens, for another 14-15-16+ loosing streak sometime in your future trading career and just have enough of a buffer for it.

Why else does foundational trading teaching say MAX %2 of your trading account. Better %1 or %.05 for daytrading.

So my advice would be to analyze your trade MANAGEMENT of each trade. IGNORE where you got in. Focus on reviewing your management of the trades.

Could you have gotten out breakeven on any? Was there any clue in hindsight that you ignored? Such as a opposite signal. Maybe some trades you did everything right but the others just stacked against you?

My guess is you'll be SHOCKED how many times you could have at least got out break-even.

• Focus on trade management as entries are always just analysis and analysis doesn't make you money.  Keeping more money than you loose is the only way to win NOT picking entries and always winning.

Lastly, I have this belief that small timeframes are better because you have so much more control. That one belief kept me unprofitable for many years. The problem is at smaller time frames you take smaller profits and think you can let loosers a little looser. Bad combo. Bad math! And it's mostly a psychological bias.

Now I like the 5min bars now because there is room to make a profit or loss and compare to my stats. I know what a big loss is and I know what a small loss is in comparison to my avg win and can make an educated decision.

I still imagine the 5 minute bars as 1 min or tick charts as a psychological trick because I can't convince myself waiting 5 min is a good idea... but man it is! Wait for that bar to close!!!

I sure hope this helps cause I know how frustrating it can be.

Hello Yuri,

Yes I have it's one of my favorites as he ACTUALLY goes onto some detail of live trades but it is still JUST backward commentary and is ONE day 6 months ago? And it's edited like crazy. He could have been doing those for years and cherry picked this ONE.

Have you ever heard of the two letters sent out, one recommending buy and one sell? Then its repeated over and over. Eventually one group gas had 10 winning picks in a row? Who are they going to put their money with.

Same principle here.

I'm not sure why people think I'm negative on Al. I'm not. But I'm realistic because again even in his LIVE trading room he doesn't EVER show live trades. Ever!

I cannot learn ANYMORE from chart reading. I have learnt what Al has taught and like many others I cannot make it profitable. I've actually NEVER heard ANYONE profitable at Al's techniques but man everyone yells really loud at me for saying so. Al has quite the HALO EFFECT going on with his followers.

People love to attack me about saying this but not ONE is profitable or can give people advice as to why it DOESN'T work and what to do.

Linda Rashke has a room where they call out live trades. Why not Al?

Why can't we see actual trade exits and entries? Like Lance Beggs of yourtradingcoach?

I loose tens of thousands every year as if I'M the one missing something in my chart reading? Right!?!! (Of course I take total responsibility for loosing money!)

I blame myself for believing Al when he says learning to trade charts is how to make money. It's not.

I'm pretty sure I'll NEVER be profitable based on Al's teachings (because CLEARLY no matter how much I study I have no way to compare as he won't show the whole story. I have to MAKE UP the rest as I go.)

I am a discretionary trader and a chart trader and pretty sure I will never make my money back in my lifetime at this but clearly everyone else is successful with Al's teachings the way they act? So it must be just me.

If anything I just wish Al would put out his entries and exits after the fact so followers can understand vs complete theory. And we know how theory works in the real world.

He could do this after the fact say next day or week, whatever. Then explain WHY he did what he did. NOW THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING!

He could charge extra. I'm sure people would be lining up for that!

I find it strange after 30 years he can't show a single trade he actually took. In the room he'll say I think I bought here and more here and sold here somewhere.

Again I appreciate Al very much and all his teachings there is just that HUGE missing piece of the puzzle.