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Is this slide saying that a TTR after a Climax has a 50% chance of forming an MTR
or
Is this slide saying that an MTR that forms within a TTR after a Climax has 50% Probability of a successful swing
MTR has only 40% possibility of a swing, so I think MTR with a TTR should have a swing probability no better than 40%. (since it's TTR, smaller risk so even worse probability!)
After climax, usually TR follows. In TR, you see both buy and sell setups. If you sell after a bull leg, you are likely taking a MTR setup!
I think Al said 50% just like he treats a triangle (BOM)
it has 50% chances of BO up or down, and 50% probability of failure after the BO.
Anyway, I think MTR in the TTR after the climax should not have better "swing" probability than other MTRs.
MTRs have an initial probability of approximately 40%. The reason is because there is initial inherent bias and the trade attempt is in the opposite direction (the reversal part of MTR). As noted a buy climax has occurred and it is the 3rd push. This bring other elements into play which helps to balance the probabilities to BOM: 1. Not initial breakout. 2. Price has moved quite a bit. 3. Quite a number of bars have printed since the climax (resolution through time). So with BOM, probabilities are more often fairly balanced and thus the 50/50 probability until, as noted within the slide there is a BO with follow through.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
