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Hello,
first of all, I'd like to introduce myself since this is my first post. I'm a part-time forex trader from Germany on my way to achieve consistent profitability. Currently, I would consider myself in the breakeven phase. I go back and forth between demo and live accounts, but only trade live when I have time to really focus on trading and only trade small positions. When I have other things to do, I try to keep up with the markets by analyzing price action after the day is over.
After finishing the course for the first time, I am currently trying to improve my understanding of BPA by analyzing charts in the EUR/USD, my market of choice, using Al's methodology. I am also somewhat familiar with Bob Volman's trading style, who also teaches PA.
Today, there was a decent late short setup in the Euro (some hindsight bias at work, obviously, since I didn't spot it live):
The trade went to a 20 Pip profit without ever coming close to a tight stop above the bull swing or above the signal bar.
In Bob Volman's terminology, I suppose this would be considered a "pattern break" setup with good buildup, the price being wedged in between the support of the MA (and a small trendline) below and some resistance above, forming several tops ("false highs") on the same level. Also, there has been significant bearish pressure leading up to the move, as evidenced by the large bear trend bar (Nr. 50). The short position would have been entered at the market on the close of the bear trend bar that breaks the black trendline (Nr. 66) and closes below the MA for a fixed profit target of 20 Pips and a Stop Loss of 10 Pips.
My question is: Would this also be considered a viable setup from a BPA perspective? My hypothesis ist that it might be a Triple Top MTR since there was a break of a previous trendline (dotted green) and then a weak attempt at continuation.
I am somewhat doubtful it would be considered a strong setup because the first attempt at a bear reversal (bar 50) didn't go very far. Also, the "buildup" seems to be a type of triangle or maybe a wedge. I'm unsure whether it could be considered a wedge.
What is your opinion on this trade? I would be grateful for some insights from more experienced BPA traders!
Cheers,
Julian
