Trading Update: Thursday September 28, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini found buyers at the 4,300-round number, and the 200–Day Moving Average.
- The Emini is approaching the end of the month and third quarter. The bulls will try to create as much of a tail as possible on the monthly chart to disappoint the bears. Traders should be prepared for a rally lasting a couple of days.
- The bears have done a good job on the daily chart. However, they are likely exhausted and will take partial profits, expecting a bounce.
- The market will probably test the August 18th low over the next week or two. It was reasonable for bulls to buy the August 18th low and scale in lower. Those bulls got trapped during the selloff and will probably look to sell out of longs near their first entry back at the August 18th low.
- The bears want to prevent the August 18th breakout point low from getting reached, which would keep the gap open.
- The bull sees two large legs on the daily chart, August 28th and Yesterday’s Low. They hope the market will form a 2nd leg trap and rally far above the August 18th low.
- Overall, traders should expect the bears to become disappointed and for the market to rally over the next few weeks.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The overnight Globex market has gone sideways on the 60 chart for several hours.
- Yesterday’s low will act as resistance today, and the market may not fall below it today.
- The bulls will try their best today to get a bull bar closing above yesterday’s high.
- There is a 20% chance of a bear trend from the open and an 80% chance of a trading range open. This means that most traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade.
- Traders can also consider waiting for a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom to form and try to catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini rallied above yesterday’s high, triggering the buy on the daily chart.
- The bulls are hopeful that today will be another strong bull trend on the daily chart.
- While the bulls have done an excellent job with the rally above yesterday’s high, the bears have halted the buying pressure.
- Bar 40 -41 are strong enough to flip the market to Always In Short and increase the probability of a second leg down and a test of yesterday’s high.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is getting a bear breakout below a bear channel. The recent downside breakout is strong enough to get a second leg down.
- The problem with the recent bear breakout is that it is late in a bear trend that began in July. This increases the risk of the downside being a climactic end of the bear trend on the daily chart.
- It is important to note that the tight bear channel on the daily chart is a strong breakout on the weekly chart that will likely get a second leg down.
- Even if the daily chart converts into a trading range and tests the top of the September 20th sell climax, the odds are that the market will not get above the July high before the bears get a second leg down on the weekly chart.
- While the downside breakout over the past few days is strong, the market has not touched the moving average in several bars; this increases the odds that bears will be less willing to sell this far from the moving average.
- Overall, traders should expect a second leg down after the recent downside breakout below the May 31st low. However, traders must realize that the selloff will likely lead to exhaustion, and the market will transition into a trading range. It is reasonable for bears to exit above any bull bar closing above its midpoint due to the risk of exhaustion.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Here is YouTube link if video popup blocked:
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.