Emini Possible Failed Wedge Top

Trading Update: Thursday June 26, 2025

Emini end of day video review

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S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini attempted to form a wedge top with the current rally above the June 11th high; however, the rally is too strong, and the bears are not getting a credible reversal bar for a short.
• The Bulls are hopeful that this rally is going to lead to a successful bull breakout of the bull channel and a test up to 6,300.
• The Bears need to do more than what they’ve done so far. At a minimum, they need to halt the buying pressure and cause the market to go sideways to convince bulls that they’re buying a possible failed breakout from a bull channel.
• The bull breakout up to June 24^th was strong enough that the odds favored at least a small second leg up. Today is the small second leg and therefore the minimum of what the Bulls expected.
• Overall, wanted to see what kind of follow-through buying the Bulls will get today and tomorrow. The stronger the rally, the more likely we’re to reach 6,300. However, if the market starts to stall and go sideways, there will be increased risk of a test down to the June 23^rd low.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The open of the US session gapped up and formed a two-legged pullback down to the bar 5 low.
• Because of the gap up, the odds favored buyers near the moving average, which is what happened at bar 5.
• The market rallied, forming a trend from the open bull trend up to the bar 23 high.
• The problem with the rally is that it is climactic. The bears will see a credible wedge top (Bars 13, 19, and 23). This increases the risk of a reversal in tests of the moving average, which is what’s happening on bar 24.
• While the bulls are hoping for a bull trend day lasting all day, the odds are against it due to the higher time frame context. The market is almost 20 bars away from the 60-minute moving average, which is extreme, increasing the odds of sideways trading in a test down to the 60-minute moving average.
• Although the rally up to bar 23 is climactic, it is in a tight bull channel, which means bar 23 has a 30% chance of leading to the high of the day. This means that board 23 is a minor reversal, and the odds favor a test of its close to relieve the trapped bulls.
• Overall, the Bears are doing a good job adding to the selling pressure, but they need to do more.  At the moment, there’s a 60% chance that today’s trend from the open bull trend will convert into a trading range.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.

• Small Pullback Bull Trend, better to only look to buy, especially near the moving average after the 2^nd  and 3^rd  legs down in the pullback.
• All of the sell signals marked on the chart are minor reversals that are more likely to lead to trading ranges and not bear trends.
• This means the sell signals are likely to fail. Traders who take these or expect them to fail will typically be quick to exit on signs of weakening Momentum.

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EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The rally up to June 12^th was climactic, but it was strong enough that the odds favored sideways trading and a minor reversal down at best for the Bears.
• The Bears attempted to reverse the rally after June 12th. However, they failed, and the market formed a second leg up to June 25^th.
• Currently, the bulls have a four-bar bull micro channel with today’s bar. This increases the odds of buyers blowing a second leg up.
• The Bears need to halt the buying pressure. They need to get bear bars closing on their lows. Ideally, they need to get a strong bear bar closing on its low with strong follow-through.
• Without a credible reversal bar for the bears, the bears need to make the market go sideways and halt the buying pressure. This would entice momentum bulls to begin selling their long positions and look to buy on a pullback.
• The Bulls are hopeful that the current rally is a successful breakout of the Bull channel; however, it is more likely that they’re sellers above the June 12th high.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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