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Nasdaq 100 Bear Inside Bar Following Biggest Bar Since April 2025

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Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures

The NASDAQ E-mini futures week is a bear inside bar following biggest bar since April 2025. It is also the first bar since April 2025 with body completely below the weekly exponential moving average (EMA)

The daily chart had a second leg down from around the weekly/daily EMA.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Weekly Bear Inside Bar Following Biggest Bar Since April 2025
  • The week is a bear inside bar following last week’s big bar.
  • Last week’s report said that big bars usually have bad follow-through, so this week is not likely to be a bear trend bar, even possibly be an inside bar.
  • This week met that expectation.
  • Last week’s report also said that an inside bear bar could suffice as the 2nd leg down.
  • For that to happen, bulls need to avoid a bear trend bar next week and ideally need a good buy signal bar that’s not too big.
  • Bears want the opposite – a big bear breakout bar closing far below last week’s low and November low close.
  • What is likely is that both sides will be disappointed – next week could be a big bull bar with tails, closing at the EMA, which will likely attract more sellers than buyers.

The Daily NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Daily 2nd Leg Down from EMA
  • Last week’s report said that, given the 3 CC bear bars, there should be at least a small second leg down.
  • This second leg down was likely to start around last Tuesday’s close and weekly EMA, a place where there were likely buyers that were trapped when Wednesday and Thursday broke below the weekly EMA.
  • Monday is a good bull bar follow-through to Friday’s big bull closing above the weekly EMA.
  • The market is now in the sell zone between the weekly EMA, last Tuesday’s close and the daily EMA.
  • At the same time, the two bull bars are strong enough that there should also be a 2nd leg up.
  • The market went sideways Tuesday and Wednesday between the daily EMA and the weekly EMA.
  • Thursday is a big bear bar falling far below the daily and weekly EMA.
  • Wednesday could technically be considered a 2nd leg up, but in reality, there was not enough room for a bigger 2nd leg up till the leg down on Thursday.
  • Friday reached the low close of last week and ended the day as a doji bar with prominent tails.
  • So far, the market is in a trading range – Buyers who bought the weekly EMA last week with wide stops and bought last Thursday’s low close made money this week. Sellers who sold the low close of last week and sold more at the weekly EMA this week made money.
  • We will likely get the second leg up early next week. So there are likely buyers that bought the close of Friday, trying to front-run the second leg up.
  • Traders will likely sell again at the daily/weekly EMA.
  • Monday is a trading holiday.
  • If next Tuesday is a big bear bar instead, it will be a surprise, and these buyers will be trapped again.
  • It is also worth noting that for the past few months, the trading range has been around the daily EMA and above the weekly EMA.
  • The gap between the daily and weekly EMA has narrowed.
  • The market is now below the weekly EMA, so it will be interesting to see if the trading range will be around the weekly EMA, with support at lower levels, or if the market gets back above both the daily and weekly EMA.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

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