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Weekly Emini Outside Bull Bar

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Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The market formed a weekly Emini outside bull bar testing near the all-time high. The bulls must create a strong breakout above the all-time high (Dec 6) with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move. The bears want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal and a double top (Dec 6).

S&P500 Emini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

Emini Weekly - No FT Selling, Retest Near All-Time High, Weekly Emini Outside Bull Bar
  • This week’s Emini candlestick was a big outside bull bar closing near its high.
  • Last week, we said traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear testing near the 20-week EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead.
  • The market traded slightly lower early in the week but reversed significantly higher.
  • The bears wanted a deeper pullback but were unable to create follow-through selling.
  • The recent 2 bear bars had overlapping ranges indicating the bears are not yet strong.
  • They see the current move (Jun 27) as a buy vacuum retest of the prior trend’s extreme high (Dec 6).
  • They want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal and a double top (Dec 6).
  • They must create strong consecutive bear bars to show they are back in control.
  • The bulls see the selloff (Apr 7) forming a major higher low and want a resumption of the trend.
  • They must create a strong breakout above the all-time high (Dec 6) with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
  • Since this week’s candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high, it can be a buy signal bar for next week.
  • The market could still trade at least a little higher.
  • The market is Always In Long.
  • The buying pressure since the April 7 low has been stronger (strong bull bars closing near their highs) than the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with limited follow-through selling).
  • The recent pullback was weak and mostly sideways which increased the odds of another leg up.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout above.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall around the December 6 high area instead?

The Daily S&P 500 Emini chart

Emini Daily - Retest Near All-Time High
  • The market tested the 20-day EMA early in the week but lacked follow-through selling. The market reversed higher for the rest of the week.
  • Last week, we said if a pullback forms but remains shallow and sideways, holding around the 20- or 200-day EMA, the odds of another leg up will increase after the pullback.
  • So far, the bears have not been able to create strong follow-through selling trading below the 20-day EMA.
  • Previously, the bulls got a strong reversal in a tight bull channel.
  • They see the selloff forming a major higher low (Apr 7) and want the broad bull channel to continue.
  • They want a retest of the all-time high followed by a breakout above. The December 6 high could be tested soon.
  • If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support followed by at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg extreme high (now Jun 27).
  • The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior trend extreme high (Dec 6).
  • They want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal and a wedge pattern (May 2, May 19, and Jun 27).
  • They want a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback lasting a few weeks.
  • They see the recent sideways trading forming a final flag and the current move forming a potential buy climax.
  • They must create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
  • The move from the April 21 low is in a tight bull channel which means strong bulls.
  • The market is Always In Long.
  • The current move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the trend extreme high (Jun 27) after a small pullback.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a retest and breakout above the December 6 high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the December 6 high area instead?

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