Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The Crude oil trading in middle of 1-bar trading range over the last 2 weeks indicates an area of balance. Bulls want at least a small sideways to up leg retesting the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high. Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s Crude Oil candlestick was a doji closing near its high with a long lower tail.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could retest the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high, or whether the market would trade sideways, forming a lower high followed by a deeper pullback to the 20-week EMA.
- The market formed a deep pullback this week but reversed back to the middle of the large 1-bar trading range.
- Bulls got a strong spike up on March 9, but the long upper tail shows rejection of higher prices.
- Bulls want at least a small sideways to up leg retesting the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- They need consecutive strong bull bars to show control.
- Bears see the March 9 move as a parabolic buy climax.
- They view the current move as a retest of that high and want a lower high.
- Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
- Crude Oil formed a parabolic buy vacuum above the 2022 high, followed by a deep pullback.
- The large doji with long tails, closing near its midpoint, created a 1-bar trading range.
- Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
- The middle of the range acts as a magnet and area of balance.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can retest the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- Or will the market continue sideways, forming a lower high followed by a deeper pullback to the 20-week EMA in the weeks ahead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
The Daily crude oil chart
- The market formed a large outside bear bar testing the 20-day EMA on Monday. There was no follow-through selling, and the market traded sideways to up into Friday.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could generate follow-through buying to retest and break above the March 9 high, or if the market would stall below it and reverse with profit-taking.
- Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- They see this week as a pullback forming a large double bottom bull flag (March 10 and March 23).
- Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars breaking above the March 23 high to increase the odds of another leg up.
- Bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
- Bears see the recent move as a parabolic buy climax (March 9) followed by a deep pullback.
- They see the current move as a second leg sideways to up and want a lower high.
- They want the March 23 high area to act as resistance.
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show control.
- The March 9 bar is a large doji, creating a 1-bar trading range where traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third.
- The middle of the range acts as a magnet and area of balance.
- The market may still be in a sideways to up phase.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can generate follow-through buying above the March 23 high to retest the March 9 high.
- Or will the market continue to stall near the March 23 high, followed by profit-taking instead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
