Trading Update: Thursday October 16, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- E-mini formed a bear doji bar yesterday, which was a second entry short following last Friday’s downside breakout.
- Although the rally has been disappointing for the bears, last Friday’s breakout is strong enough that the odds favor a second leg down.
- The daily chart is likely converting into a trading range following the prolonged bull channel. This means that the odds favor tests of prior higher lows, such as the September 2nd major higher low.
- Even if the rally goes above last Friday’s strong bear bar, the odds favor sellers above its high and the daily chart evolving into a trading range. This means that the upside is likely limited over the next several bars.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a small gap up and a large expanding triangle for the first 20 bars.
- The bulls got a rally up to bar 15 that failed to break out of the bar 5 high, and the market reversed down to the bar 31 low.
- The Bears formed consecutive strong barrel bars, 23 and 24, making the odds favor a second leg down, which the Bears got to the 31 low.
- Selling down to 31 has been good for the Bears. However, the Bears face a problem with buying pressure.
- Bar 25 is a strong enough bull reversal bar that there are probably buyers below it. This increases the risk of profit taking below the 25 low, and the market testing the bar 25 high over the next several bars.
- As of Bar 32, the odds are that the market is going to reach the Bar 25 high. Therefore, the downside is probably limited.
- Because of all the trading range price action that we’ve had today, the odds favor a trading range for the rest of the day. This means traders must be open to the possibility of the market testing back to the day’s open.
- Because yesterday’s range was pretty large, today is probably going to form an inside day and stay within yesterday’s range.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
