Trading Update: Monday August 25, 2025
E-mini end of day video review
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S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini last Friday formed a strong bull trend bar, closing near its high. This is a strong enough surprise that the odds favor at least a small second leg up.
- The rally up to the August high was tight, and therefore, the first reversal down was likely to be minor. Once the Bears formed an inside doji last Thursday, it increased the odds of buyers below.
- Because of how tight the bull channel has been on the daily chart, the odds are the market’s going to go sideways for several bars before the bears have a chance to get a credible reversal down.
- Last Friday is a reminder that the Bears have not done enough, and the Bears need to do more if they’re going to get the credible reversal down.
- The bull is still to see the market as Always In Long, therefore, they will look to buy any reversal down, hoping to prevent the Bears from getting more signs of strength.
- While last Friday’s bull breakout was strong, it will probably have weak follow-through and lead to more sideways trading. This means that there is likely profit-taking above the August high.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a gap down and has gone sideways for the first 18 bars. The gap down was small, and that increased the probability that the market was likely to test up to yesterday’s close, which is what is going on right now.
- With all the tight trading range price action for the first 18 bars, that increases the odds that the rally up to bar 24 will likely disappoint the Bulls and fail to lead to a strong bull trend.
- The bulls will try and keep a gap above the bar 8 close open, increasing the risk of a small pullback trend day. More likely, today will be disappointing and the bulls will fail to keep a bull trend lasting all day.
- The Bulls want a test up to last Friday’s high, which would trigger the buy on the daily chart.
- Because of last Friday’s strong reversal up the odds favor a second leg. This means that sideways to up is more likely than a bear trend day.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
