Trading Update: Thursday September 25, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini formed consecutive bull bars yesterday following Monday’s strong bi-climate.
- Because the daily chart is forming a nested wedge top and Monday’s breakout bar to the upside was climactic, the odds favored a reversal down and test of the moving average, which is what happened this morning.
- The sell-off to the moving average on the daily chart is good for the bears. However, a trading range day is more likely than a strong reversal down.
- This means that there’s probably a buyer near the moving average, and the daily chart may have to go sideways for several bars.
- The buy climax on the daily chart is more likely to lead to a trading range and not the start of a strong bear sell-off.
- While a strong reversal down is possible, the bears will need to form a series of strong barreled bars before that becomes a reality.
- More likely, the moving average is going to lead to support, and the market will go sideways for a couple of days. Less likely that the market breaks firmly below the moving average without first getting a bounce.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today, from the large gap down, with three consecutive large bear trend bars closing on their lows.
- While this was good for the Bears, the sell-off down to bar 3 was climactic late in a sell-off on the Globex chart.
- This increased the risk that the sell-off would go down to bar 3, which was more of a sell vacuum test of the daily moving average that would likely find buyers.
- The gap down and the sell-off on the open lower the probability of today forming a bear trend. That’s because the range from yesterday’s close to the low of 3 was bigger than the average.
- The market formed a reversal up to bar 11 that was strong enough to get a second leg up and a test of yesterday’s low.
- The Bears managed to make the market go sideways and get two strong legs down to 24, which was a test of the midpoint of the day’s range. The Bulls ended up getting a reversal up to bar 27. However, they were unable to break far above the day’s high of 12.
- As of Bar 39, the market has drifted sideways to down and is near the open of the day.
- Overall, the market is slightly more bullish than bearish based on the rally from bars 5 to 11. With that said, the market formed a large gap down with three consecutive bear bars closing on their lows on the open. That increases the risk that the market may be forming a trading range day and may test down to the bar 5 Low 1 short later today.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
